农业服务业促进粮食高质量发展了吗——基于272个地级市面板数据的门槛回归分析  

Has Agricultural Service Industry Promoted the Development of High-quality Grain?——Threshold Regression Analysis Based on Panel Data of 272 Prefecture-level Cities

作　　者：李明文[1] 王振华[1] 张广胜[2] LI Mingwen;WANG Zhenhua;ZHANG Guangsheng

机构地区：[1]沈阳农业大学经济管理学院,沈阳110866 [2]辽宁大学商学院,沈阳110136

出　　处：《农业技术经济》2020年第7期4-16,共13页Journal of Agrotechnical Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:71840010,71503173);辽宁省社会科学规划基金重点项目(编号:L18AJY007)。

摘　　要：本文基于2002—2016年272个地级市的面板数据,在粮食高质量发展背景下运用DEA-Malmquist指数法测度各地级市粮食全要素生产率,利用空间计量模型和门槛回归模型揭示农业服务业对粮食全要素生产率的非线性影响与影响路径。研究发现,农业服务业占比升高有利于粮食全要素生产率的提升,但农业服务业对粮食全要素生产率存在非线性的影响,即随着人均种植规模的扩大,农业服务业占比提高对粮食全要素生产率的影响表现出逐渐递增的特点;农业服务业发展对粮食全要素生产率提升作用主要通过技术效率途径实现,技术进步途径贡献不明显。Based on the panel data of 272 cities from 2001 to 2016,this paper uses DEA-Malmquist index method to measure the total factor productivity of grain in each city and uses the spatial econometric model and threshold regression model to reveal the non-linear impact and its mechanisms of agricultural services on total factor productivity.It is found that the increase in the proportion of the agricultural service industry is beneficial to the improvement of total factor productivity of grain.Furthermore,the impact of the agricultural service industry on total factor productivity of grain is non-linear,which increases first and then decreases with the increase of the proportion of agricultural service industry.The development of the agricultural service industry plays an important role in the improvement of total factor productivity of grain mainly through the path of technological progress.The contribution of the technical efficiency path is not significant.

关 键 词：农业服务业 粮食TFP 技术进步 技术效率 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F326.6[经济管理—产业经济] F326.11