2015—2017年夏季合肥市热指数对心血管疾病住院的影响  

Effects of heat index on hospital admissions of cardiovascular diseases in Hefei in summer during 2015-2017

作　　者：崔龙江 耿茜雅 许季祥 丁涛 翟金霞[1] CUI Long-jiang;GENG Xi-ya;XU Ji-xiang;DING Tao;ZHAI Jin-xia(Department of Occupational and Environmental Health,School of Public Health,Anhui Medical University,Hefei,Anhui 230032,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽医科大学公共卫生学院劳动卫生与环境卫生学系,安徽合肥230032

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2019年第11期1007-1011,共5页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：安徽省教育厅安徽高校自然科学研究项目(0311011206)。

摘　　要：目的探讨合肥市夏季热指数(HI)对心血管疾病住院的影响。方法采用时间序列的滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model,DLNM),控制时间长期趋势、星期几效应、大气污染和其他混杂因素,分析合肥市2015—2017年夏季HI对居民心血管疾病住院的影响,并按性别和年龄进行分层分析。结果当HI每升高1个单位时,总人群、男性、<65岁人群的心血管疾病住院风险的最大效应值RR(95%CI)分别为1.049(1.008~1.091),1.047(1.001~1.096),1.110(1.024~1.204),累积效应分别发生在滞后10、7、14 d。日最高气温每升高1℃时,总人群、男性、<65岁人群的心血管疾病住院风险的最大效应值分别为1.042(1.003~1.083),1.051(1.007~1.098),1.097(1.008~1.095)。日相对湿度每升高1%时,总人群、男性、<65岁人群的心血管疾病住院风险的最大效应值分别为1.016(1.002~1.030),1.003(1.000~1.010),1.031(1.008~1.055)。结论HI可能增加心血管疾病住院风险,且具有一定的滞后期。HI对心血管疾病住院的影响效应值高于单独使用气温或相对湿度作为指标时的效应值,提示应综合考虑气温和相对湿度对心血管疾病住院的影响。Objective To investigate the effects of heat index(HI)on the hospital admissions of cardiovascular diseases in Hefei in summer during 2015-2017.Methods With the control of long-term trend of time,the effect of the day of the week,air pollution and other confounding factors,the distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM)was used to analyze the effects of heat index(HI)in summer on the hospital admissions of cardiovascular diseases in residents of Hefei in 2015-2017,and stratified analysis was conducted by gender and age.Results When the heat index increased by 1 unit,the maximum risk(RR)of hospital admissions for total population,male and population<65 years old,were 1.049(95%CI:1.008-1.091),1.047(95%CI:1.001-1.096),1.110(95%CI:1.024-1.204),the related cumulative effect occured on lag 10 d,lag 7 d,lag 14 d,respectively.An increase of 1℃of maximum daily temperature was associated with the maximum effect on hospital admission,the RRs were1.042(1.003-1.083),1.051(95%CI:1.007-1.098)and 1.097(95%CI:1.008-1.095)for the general population,male,and population<65 years old respectively;An increase of 1%of daily relative humidity was associated the maximum effect on hospital admission,the RRs were 1.016(95%CI:1.002-1.030),1.003(95%CI:1.000-1.010)and 1.031(95%CI:1.008-1.055)for the general population,male and population<65 years old.Conclusion The heat index can increase the risk of hospital admission of cardiovascular diseases with a certain lag effects,which is more significant than temperature or humidity alone used as an indicator.It is suggested that the effects of temperature and relative humidity on hospital admission of cardiovascular diseases should be comprehensively considered.

关 键 词：热指数 心血管疾病 气温 相对湿度 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]