家庭生命周期、风险偏好对农户规模经营意愿的影响——基于江苏省北部两县市的调查数据  

Impact of Household Life Cycle and Risk Preference on Rural Households’Willingness to Engage in Land Scale Operation:Based on the Survey Data from Two Counties of Jiangsu Province

作　　者：苏敏[1] 冯淑怡[1] 诸培新[1] SU Min;FENG Shuyi;ZHU Peixin(College of Public Administration,Nanjing Agricultural University,Nanjing 210095,China)

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2020年第7期88-96,共9页China Land Science

基　　金：国家社科基金专项“研究阐释党的十九大精神国家社科基金专项立项课题深度研究,完善农村承包地“三权”分置研究”(18VSJ060)。

摘　　要：研究目的:探索家庭生命周期对农户规模经营意愿的影响,特别是风险偏好在其中发挥的中介作用,以期为土地适度规模经营政策的完善提供参考。研究方法:采用中介效应检验流程,使用普通最小二乘法和Ologit/Logit模型。研究结果:(1)家庭生命周期对农户规模经营意愿具有显著的直接影响,不同家庭生命周期阶段下的农户,其规模经营意愿存在差异。(2)家庭生命周期会通过风险偏好间接影响农户规模经营意愿,空巢夫妇家庭的风险偏好程度最低,农户规模经营意愿最弱,成长中核心家庭的风险偏好程度最高,农户规模经营意愿最强。(3)家庭的农业专有资产积累越多、土地产权越安全、灌溉条件越好,农户规模经营意愿越强。研究结论:为引导农户规模经营意愿,促进土地流转和规模经营,政府政策的制定应考虑不同家庭生命周期阶段具有的劳动力和资金资本规律;积极发展土地流转市场,促进农户规模经营意愿的实现;建立正规的农业避险机制;促进农户农业专有资产的积累、保障和提高土地产权安全、改善土地灌溉设施条件。The purpose of this paper is to investigate the overall impacts,especially the indirect impact of household life cycle(HLC)on rural households’willingness to engage in land scale operation(RHWELO).The research methods include ordinary least squares and Ologit/Logit models.The research results show that:(1)HLC has a significantly direct impact on RHWELO,and different rural households under different HLC have different RHWELO.(2)HLC also affects RHWELO through risk preference indirectly.The empty nest families have the weakest risk preference,and thus have the weakest RHWELO.The growing nuclear families have the strongest risk preference,so do their RHWELO.(3)More agricultural specific assets,the safer land property rights,and the better irrigation conditions has a significant positive effect on RHWELO,respectively.In conclusion,to improve RHWELO and farmland transfer,the differences of labor capital and cash capital among different HLC should be considered by the government.Developing land rental market is helpful to achieve RHWELO.Furthermore,establishing formal agricultural risk avoidance mechanism,helping rural households to accumulate agricultural specific assets and improving the security of land property rights as well as the irrigation conditions should also be considered during the policy-making.

关 键 词：土地管理 中介效应 普通最小二乘法 Ologit/Logit模型 家庭生命周期 风险偏好 规模经营 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]