基于VECM向量误差修正模型的东三省对外贸易开放程度与经济增长的关系研究  

Research on The Relationship Between The Degree of Foreign Trade Openness And Economic Growth in The Three Northeastern Provinces Based On VECM Model

作　　者：常裕琦 徐洁香[2] 胡金淼 CHANG Yu-qi;XU Jie-xiang;HU Jin-miao(School of Economics and Finance,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu233030,Anhui Province;School of International Trade and Economics,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu233030,Anhui Province)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院,安徽蚌埠233030 [2]安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《沈阳工程学院学报（自然科学版）》2020年第3期78-85,90,共9页Journal of Shenyang Institute of Engineering:Natural Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71934001);安徽省社科规划办项目(AHSKY2018D89)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议的提出,为东北亚经济走廊的建设和东北贸易口岸的开放提供了新的契机,同时极大地促进了东三省的经济增长。通过构建VECM向量误差修正模型,利用黑龙江省、吉林省和辽宁省在1978~2018年的相关数据,对东三省对外开放程度与经济增长之间的关系进行实证分析。实证研究表明:从长期来看,东三省的经济增长与对外贸易的开放程度呈正相关;此外,出口对经济增长的正向影响在前五期有明显的促进作用,在第五期出口对经济增长的贡献程度增至90%;最后,东北地区的经济类型仍为出口导向型经济,也证实了东北地区在拉动内需、刺激消费和进口等方面仍亟需提高。The proposal of"One Belt and One Road"provides a new opportunity for the construction of the northeast Asian economic corridor and the opening of the northeast trade port,and at the same time greatly promotes the economic growth of the three northeast provinces.Based on the constructed VECM vector error correction model,this paper utilized the relevant data of Heilongjiang Province,Jilin Province and Liaoning Province from 1978 to 2018 to conduct an empirical analysis of the relationship between the degree of opening to the outside world and economic growth in the three northeastern provinces.The empirical study shows that the economic growth of the three northeastern provinces is positively correlated with the degree of foreign trade openingin the long run.In addition,the positive effect of exports on economic growth has a clear promotion effect in the first five periods.In the fifth period,the contribution of exports to economic growth increased to 90%.Finally,the economy of northeast China is still export-oriented,which proves that the region still needs improvement in stimulating domestic demand,consumption and imports.

关 键 词：东三省 经济增长 对外贸易 VECM协整模型 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易] F127[经济管理—产业经济]