浅析扶绥县秋季降水的气候特征及甘蔗种植秋旱防御对策  

Analysis on Climatic Characteristics of Autumn Precipitation and Frequency of Autumn Drought in Sugarcane Planting in Fusui

作　　者：黄丽球 崖伟松 蒙小寒 何家红 莫申萍 HUANG Li-qiu;YA Wei-song;MENG Xiao-han;HE Jia-hong;MO Shen-ping(Guangxi East Asia Funan Sugar Co.Ltd.,Chongzuo,Guangxi 532199;Guigang Meteorologic Bureau,Guigang,Guangxi 537100;Meteorological Bureau of Fusui County,Chongzuo,Guangxi 532199)

机构地区：[1]广西东亚扶南精糖有限公司,广西崇左532199 [2]广西贵港市气象局,广西贵港537100 [3]广西崇左市扶绥县气象局,广西崇左532199

出　　处：《甘蔗糖业》2020年第4期33-40,共8页Sugarcane and Canesugar

摘　　要：以国家标准中的农业气象干旱等级为灾害指标,利用扶绥县1960~2019年国家地面观测站的全年逐日降水量资料进行趋势分析、累积距平分析、Morlet小波分析,分析了扶绥县秋季降水的特征和干旱发生频率。结果表明:秋季降水量具有向上增加的趋势而降水日数则相反呈向下减少趋势,秋季降水的量级增加趋势明显。在秋季年平均降水日数中,主要降水类型以小雨为主,小雨和暴雨及以上量级呈上升趋势,中雨和大雨略呈下降趋势,暴雨及以上量级对秋季降水量的贡献才是主要的,其次是中雨再次是大雨。秋季降水序列存在4个较明显的周期特征时间尺度,分别是2、6、14和30 a,其中,2、6 a的振荡周期偏弱;14、30 a的振荡周期偏强,未来一到两年(2020~2021年)扶绥县秋季干旱的可能性仍较大且处于14 a的周期等值线范围内振荡。扶绥县秋季发生干旱频率达31.7%,其发生秋旱的可能性较大。Taking agro-meteorological drought grade in national standard as disaster index,trend analysis,cumulative analysis and wavelet analysis were carried out on autumn precipitation characteristics and drought occurrence frequency in Fusui County.The annual daily precipitation data from the national ground observation station from 1960 to 2019 in Fusui County were used for analysis.The results showed that the precipitation tends to increase upward in autumn.On the contrary,the number of precipitation days shows a downward trend.The precipitation level changes obviously in autumn.The main type of precipitation is light rain in the average number of precipitation days in autumn.Light rain,rainstorm and more rainfall show an upward trend.Moderate rain and heavy rain showed a slight downward trend.The contribution of rainstorm and above to autumn precipitation is the main one.The second is moderate rain and the third is heavy rain.There are four obvious periodic characteristic time scales in autumn precipitation sequence.Periodic characteristic scale are 2,6,14,30 a.The oscillation periods of 2 and 6 a are weak.The oscillation periods of 14 and 30 a are strong.In the next one to two years(2020~2021),the possibility of autumn drought in Fusui County is still large.Autumn drought in Fusui County oscillates in the isoline range with a period of 14 years.The frequency of drought in autumn in Fusui County reached 31.7%.The possibility of autumn drought is greater.

关 键 词：甘蔗 秋季 降水 干旱 灾害 小波分析 

分 类 号：S566.1[农业科学—作物学]