煤矿高概率险兆事件界定及其研究意义  

Definition and research significance of high probability near-miss in coal mine

作　　者：田水承 杨鹏飞[1,2] 唐凯 贾爱芳[1,2] TIAN Shui-cheng;YANG Peng-fei;TANG Kai;JIA Ai-fang(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710054,China;Institute of Safety and Emergency Management,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an 710054,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学安全科学与工程学院,陕西西安710054 [2]西安科技大学安全与应急管理研究所,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《西安科技大学学报》2020年第4期566-571,共6页Journal of Xi’an University of Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51874237,U1904210);教育部“人因与工效学”产学合作协同育人项目(201901024024)。

摘　　要：事故发生必有险兆。险兆事件是事故形成的基础,是损失发生前的预警信号。险兆事件研究为煤矿等高危领域提高安全性、可靠性提供了一种重要而实用的手段。为界定煤矿高概率险兆事件,通过梳理国内外相关概率分级标准,归纳得到高概率事件界定标准,并结合险兆事件定义,明确了煤矿高概率险兆事件定义。通过相关资料,梳理近20 a间发生的各类煤矿事故数量,按照海因里希事故三角形法则(事故的发生数量与险兆事件发生数量比例),计算各类煤矿险兆事件发生数量;运用模糊信息优化处理方法,实现煤矿险兆事件发生数量到发生概率的转化,计算得到各类煤矿险兆事件的发生概率;根据煤矿高概率险兆事件界定标准,顶板类、瓦斯类和运输类3类煤矿险兆事件发生概率分别为0.2527,0.1794和0.1151,发生概率大于0.1,故确定以上3类煤矿险兆事件为煤矿高概率险兆事件。通过分析顶板事故、瓦斯事故和运输事故的严重后果,验证了高概率险兆事件界定的合理性。There must be omens for accidents.Near-miss is the cornerstone of accidents and the early-warning signal before the loss.Research on near-miss is an important and practical means to improve the safety in coal mine and other high risk areas.In order to define high-probability near-miss in a coal mine,the relevant probability classification standards were used to sort out domestically and internationally,with the definition standard of high-probability events being summarized.And the definition of high-probability near-miss was determined by combining with the definition of near-miss.Then the relevant data were used to sort out the number of various coal mine accidents that occurred in the past 20 years.The number of coal mine near-miss was calculated according to the Heinrich accident triangle rule which provided a ratio between the number of accidents and the number of near-miss.The fuzzy information optimization method was used to realize the transformation from the number of coal mine near-miss to the probability of their occurrence,and the probability of all kinds of coal mine near-miss was figured out.With reference to the high-probability near-miss definition standard,the occurrence probabilities of roof,gas and transportation near-miss were 0.2527,0.1794 and 0.1151,and the probability of which was greater than 0.1.So it was determined that the above three types of coal mine near-miss were coal mine high probability near-miss.An analysis of the serious consequences of roof accident,gas accident and transportation accident ascertains the rationality of the definition of high-probability near-miss.

关 键 词：煤矿 高概率 险兆事件 海因里希法则 模糊信息优化处理方法 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学]