中美权力变化与美国公众对“中国威胁”的认知  

Narrowing Sino-U.S.Power Asymmetry and the American Public's Perception of“China Threat”

作　　者：庞琴 Pang Qin

机构地区：[1]中山大学国际关系学院 [2]中山大学“一带一路”研究院,广州510275

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2020年第7期69-96,157,158,共30页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：权力变化引起国际冲突的因果机制是当前国际关系理论与政策研究中的热点。现有研究较少从心理学特别是威胁认知的角度探讨该问题。以当前中美关系为案例,通过对美国公众的调查数据进行中介与调节效应分析,可以得出以下发现:第一,中国经济与军事实力的增长通过影响美国民众对本国未来经济走势的信心以及对中美两国发生冲突的可能性的判断这两种途径作用于他们的“中国威胁”认知,其中对“冲突可能性的判断”具有更为明显的中介作用。第二,在中美两国目前的权力对比格局下,中国经济与军事实力上升引发美国原有“温和派”特别是产业资本阶层和军事接触派的“中国威胁”认知快速上升,其增长的弹性系数高于原来的“强硬派”即产业劳动力阶层和军事遏制派,导致原先的“温和派”与“强硬派”之间差距缩小,两派对“中国威胁”认知的同质性迅速加强并形成共识,成为支持美国政府对华强硬政策的社会心理基础。上述发现拓展了威胁认知以及权力转移导致冲突的心理动因理论,对解释中美关系的当前变化和未来发展具有一定意义。What is the causal mechanism that drives power transition to international conflicts?Relatively few studies have explored the issue from the psychological perspective,especially threat perception.This study explores the causal mechanism by using the current Sino-US relations as a case,and examining the large-scaled survey data for American public perception of“China threat”.It comes to the following findings.First,China s economic and military power growth strengthens the American public s“China threat”perception through two intermediary variables:confidence in American economic future and judgment of Sino-U.S.conflict possibility,among which judgment of conflict possibility has a more obvious intermediary effect.Second,China s economic and military power growth has led to rapid growth of“China threat”perception from the“soft-liners”on China issues,mainly the industrial capital class and the dovish military fraction.Their threat perception grows in a higher elasticity than that of the“hardliners”on China issues,that is,the industrial labor class and the hawkish military group.This could result in a narrowed gap between the“soft-liners”and“hardliners”,and even their consensus upon“China threat”,which serves as the social psychological basis for supporting the U.S.government s hard policy towards China.The findings contribute to theories concerning inter-group threat perception and expand our understanding of the causal mechanism between power shift and international conflict.They are also helpful in explaining the current changes of Sino-US relations and predicting its future development.

关 键 词：威胁认知 增长弹性系数 同质性 权力转移 中美关系 

分 类 号：D815[政治法律—国际关系]