应用集中度和圆形分布法分析安徽省2011—2017年发热伴血小板减少综合征的季节分布  

Using concentration ratio and circular distribution method to analyze seasonal characteristics of severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome in Anhui province,2011—2017

作　　者：刘伯熙 龚磊[2] 宋丹丹[2] 朱梦 朱玉良 吴家兵[2] Liu Boxi;Gong Lei;Song Dandan;Zhu Meng;Zhu Yuliang;Wu Jiabing(Health Emergency Department,Inner Mongolia Comprehensive Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hohhot 010031,China;Department of Health Emergency Management and Acute Infectious Diseases Prevention,Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Hefei 230601,China;Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Heilongjiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古自治区综合疾病预防控制中心业务处应急办,呼和浩特010031 [2]安徽省疾病预防控制中心卫生应急管理与急性传染病防治科,合肥230601 [3]黑龙江省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《中华实验和临床病毒学杂志》2020年第3期252-255,共4页Chinese Journal of Experimental and Clinical Virology

摘　　要：目的应用集中度和圆形分布法,分析安徽省发热伴血小板减少综合征(severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome,SFTS)流行的季节性特征。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统的"传染病报告信息管理系统",收集2011—2017年安徽省SFTS发病资料。描述2011—2017年安徽省SFTS发病的时间特征;采用集中度法分析SFTS发病的季节性特征,并计算集中度M值;采用圆形分布法,通过计算平均角α—,分析SFTS发病的周期性和高峰期。结果2011—2017年,安徽省累计报告SFTS病例1641例,7年发病数分别为67、67、85、239、283、507、393例;发病率呈整体上升趋势(线性趋势χ2=614.29,P<0.001),最低为2011年(0.11/10万),最高为2016年(0.83/10万)。计算得集中度M值为0.522,提示有较强的季节性;采用圆形分布法,首先计算得平均角α—为171.05°(Z=439.66,P<0.001),据此推算出安徽省SFTS的平均发病日期为6月21日,流行期为4月15日至8月27日。结论安徽省SFTS发病有较强的季节分布特征,4~8月份为该病的流行高峰期,应在此期间加强对FSTS的防控。Objective Concentration ratio and circular distribution were used to descrip the seasonal epidemic features of thrombocytopenia syndrome(SFTS)in Anhui province.Methods SFTS data were collected via National Notifiable Disease Report System from 2011-2017 in Anhui province.The temporal distribution of SFTS in Anhui province was reviewed,and then the M value was calculated to further present the seasonal morbidity features of it;circular distribution was conducted to obtain SFTS′s circulation and peak period of its morbidity.Results From 2011-2017,the total case number of SFTS in Anhui province was 1641,and 67,67,85,239,283,507,393 respectively for each year.The incidence showed an obvious ascending tendency(linearχ2=614.29,P<0.001),with a peak in 2017(0.83/100000).The mean angle value was 171.05°(Z=439.66,P<0.001).Based on this,the peak incidence date was predicted to be June,21st,with a peak period between 15th April and 27th August.Conclusions There is an obvious seasonal peak features of SFTS in Anhui province,with a peak period between April and August,which suggests that enhanced prevention protocols should be carried out during the peak period.

关 键 词：集中度 圆形分布 发热伴血小板减少综合征 季节性 新发传染病 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学] R512.8[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]