战略情报预测模型的作用机理与价值述评  

Estimates on the Mechanism and Value of the Strategic Intelligence Predictive Model

作　　者：马晓娟 陈烨 闻杰 董庆安 Ma Xiaojuan;Chen Ye;Wen Jie;Dong Qing'an(International Studies College, National Unviersity of Defense Technology,Nanjing 210039)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学国际关系学院,南京210039

出　　处：《情报杂志》2020年第8期6-15,共10页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[目的/意义]定量分析是战略情报预测分析的重要方法策略。探讨以定量方法为灵魂的战略情报预测模型的基本结构和作用机理,科学评价该模型价值,对丰富战略情报预测方法路径、探究战略情报预测分析方法的未来发展有重要意义。[方法/过程]通过描述性研究、概念分析、思辨、对比、案例分析等方法,全方位剖析了战略情报预测模型的体系结构、作用机理、局限性与科学性。[结果/结论]战略情报预测模型是谋求将定量方法应用于战略情报预测的尝试性探索。该模型无法完全替代情报分析人员的分析研判工作,但它突出了对假设和证据的管理,引入了指标体系、多元假设、概率评估等元素,增强了战略情报预测分析的科学性。该模型还可作为情报工作模式变革的牵引器,尤其是为人工智能技术在情报分析领域的应用搭建了平台。[Purpose/Significance]Quantitative analysis is an important method of strategic intelligence predicative analysis.It is of great significance to broaden the analytic path and explore the future development of analytic methods by probing into the basic structure and mechanism of strategic intelligence predicative model with quantitative methods as its core and conducting a scientific assessment of its value.[Method/Process]A comprehensive estimate is given on the inherent structure,mechanism,limitation and scientificity of strategic intelligence predictive model using the methods of descriptive research,conceptual interpretation,critical thinking,comparison and case-study analysis.[Result/Conclusion]The strategic intelligence predicative model is a tentative try on application of quantitative methods to strategic predication.Incorporating elements of indicator system,multiple hypothesis,probability assessment,the model puts an emphasis on the management of hypothesis and evidence,thus makes strategic intelligence predicative analysis more scientific.It can be used as a key driver of the working pattern renovation in intelligence,and especially as a platform for the application of artificial intelligence in intelligence analysis.

关 键 词：战略情报 情报预测 情报分析 情报工作 预测模型 评价体系 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]