基于部门消费混合模型的我国天然气未来需求预测  

Demand projection of natural gas in China based on the hybrid model of sector consumption

作　　者：郭晓茜 刘永权[2] GUO Xiaoqian;LIU Yongquan(Institute of Mineral Resources,Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,Beijing 100037,China;Geoscience Documentation Center,China Ceological Survey,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质科学院矿产资源研究所,北京100037 [2]中国地质调查局地学文献中心,北京100083

出　　处：《中国地质调查》2020年第4期118-124,共7页Geological Survey of China

基　　金：中国地质调查局“中国水资源生态配置及全球战略(编号:N1906)”项目资助。

摘　　要：天然气作为一种优质的清洁能源,在我国低碳经济的发展要求下受到越来越多的关注,分析我国未来天然气需求量可以为我国能源政策提供相关借鉴。影响天然气需求的因素很多,这些因素可以极大影响天然气的需求预测结果。从影响天然气需求预测的影响因子入手,分析了天然气的部门消费量,重点选取工业、生活和交通3个部门作为研究对象,并建立一个混合模型。根据单位根检验、协整方程以及格兰杰因果检验3个因果,确定了天然气需求量的影响因子,然后利用灰色预测和回归分析对每个部门的需求量进行预测。最后,基于以上研究预测我国天然气需求量到2025年将达到6378亿m 3。As a main clean energy in China,natural gas has received great attention under the requirement of the low-carbon development strategy.The demand projection of natural gas in China is very important for energy policymakers in future energy sources planning.The natural gas demand is influenced by a series of factors,which have a huge causal impact on demand projection.Therefore,the authors analyzed the influencing factors and the sector consumption of natural gas,and focused on the industrial,residential and transport sector to build a hybrid model.Based on the unit root tests,co-integration test and Granger causality test,the influencing factors of the natural gas demand were identified.Then the grey model and regression analysis were utilized to predict the demand for each factor.Finally,based on the projection above,the total natural gas demand for China will be 6378.6×10^8 m3 in 2025.

关 键 词：天然气 需求 影响因子 预测 

分 类 号：F407.22[经济管理—产业经济] P962[天文地球—自然地理学]