中国2019年脊髓灰质炎野病毒输入传播的风险评估  

Risk assessment for wild poliovirus importation and transmission at subnational levels of China in 2019

作　　者：杨宏[1] 樊春祥[1] 曹雷[1] 马超[1] 郝利新[1] 尹遵栋[1] 温宁[1] Yang Hong;Fan Chunxiang;Cao Lei;Ma Chao;Hao Lixin;Yin Zundong;Wen Ning(National Immunization Program,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Beijing 100050,China)

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心免疫规划中心,北京100050

出　　处：《中国疫苗和免疫》2020年第3期261-264,286,共5页Chinese Journal of Vaccines and Immunization

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10101002-003)。

摘　　要：目的评估中国各省份2019年脊髓灰质炎(脊灰)野病毒(Wild poliovirus,WPV)输入传播的风险。方法根据世界卫生组织WPV输入传播风险评估工具,制定中国WPV输入传播风险的评估指标和风险评分标准,判定各省份的风险综合评分和风险分级。结果本次WPV输入传播风险评估共纳入人群免疫水平、急性弛缓性麻痹病例监测、是否与WPV流行国家接壤3项一级指标,其中前两项指标分别包括6项和5项二级指标。评估结果显示,WPV输入传播的高风险(27-46分)、中风险(11-21分)、低风险(3-8分)省份数分别为3个、14个、14个。结论中国存在WPV输入传播的潜在风险;建议对不同风险水平地区采取相应的应对措施以维持无脊灰成果。Objective To assess the risk of wild poliovirus(WPV)importation and transmission at subnational levels of China in 2019.Methods We developed assessment indicators and scoring criteria for WPV importation and transmission risk in China based on the assessment tool of the World Health Organization.We determined risk scores and risk levels for each province.Results Our WPV importation and transmission risk assessment used three primary indicators–population immunization,surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis,and presence of bordering countries with WPV epidemics;the first two primary indicators included 6 and 5 secondary indicators.Our assessment showed that 3,14,and 14 provinces were identified as high risk(scores 27-46),medium risk(scores 11-21),and low risk(scores 3-8),respectively.Conclusions China remains at risk of WPV importation and transmission.We suggest tailoring responses according to risk level for maintaining polio-free status.

关 键 词：脊髓灰质炎 脊髓灰质炎野病毒 输入 传播 风险评估 

分 类 号：R186[医药卫生—流行病学] R512.62[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学]