中国地区间经济均衡增长路径研究  

Research on the Path of Balanced Economic Growth among Regions in China

作　　者：周玲[1] 李宝瑜[1] ZHOU Ling;LI Bao-yu(School of Statistics,Shanxi University of Finance & Economics,Taiyuan 030006,China)

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学统计学院,山西太原030006

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2020年第9期34-41,共8页Journal of Statistics and Information

摘　　要：实现区域协调发展是新时代赋予的重要使命。本文基于2018年31个省份的数据,采用社会网络分析中的二次指派程序(QAP)法实证考察了各因素对中国及其东、中、西和东北部区域经济差距的影响,通过调整影响因素的规模和结构,模拟了地区间经济均衡增长路径,结果发现扩大地方财政支出差距,缩小区域间外商直接投资、产业结构、对外贸易和金融发展差距对区域经济协调发展产生积极的影响。除此之外,同时降低所有影响因素在东部与西部的差距是实现地区间经济均衡发展的最优路径,同时缩减外商直接投资和对外贸易区域差异也能够达到比较好的效果。Achieving coordinated regional development is an important mission entrusted by the new era.Based on the data of 31 provinces in 2018,the QAP method of social network is used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of the economic disparity in China and the four major economic regions.Then the regional balanced growth path is simulated by adjusting the scale and structure of the influencing factors.The results show that,expanding the disparity of regional local fiscal expenditure and narrowing the disparity of regional FDI,industrial structure,foreign trade and financial development have a positive impact on the coordinated development of regional economy.In addition,reducing the disparity between the eastern and western regions of all influencing factors is the optimal path to achieve balanced regional economic development.Reducing the regional differences between FDI and foreign trade can also achieve better results.

关 键 词：经济均衡增长 QAP 地区差距 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学]