中国工业部门碳排放峰值预测及减排潜力研究  

A Study on Carbon Emission Peak Forecast and Emission Reduction Potential of China's Industrial Sector

作　　者：袁晓玲[1,2] 郗继宏 李朝鹏 张武林 YUAN Xiao-ling;XI Ji-hong;LI Zhao-peng;ZHANG Wu-lin(School of Economics and Finance,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710061,China;Shaanxi Provincial Economic Quality Development Soft Science Research Base,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710061,China;Business School,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061 [2]西安交通大学陕西省经济高质量发展软科学研究基地,陕西西安710061 [3]南京信息工程大学商学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2020年第9期72-82,共11页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目“社会主要矛盾变化背景下人民美好生活需要的内涵研究”(18JZD010);国家社会科学基金后期资助项目“从企业价值创造能力看经济质量提升问题研究”(19FJYB008);陕西国际商贸学院步长西咸经济研究院立项资助项目“西咸经济高质量发展的指标体系研究”(GJS201902)。

摘　　要：预测不同情境下中国工业部门碳排放达峰时间和大小,对达峰目标管理具有重要参考价值。在对中国工业部门整体以及8大细分行业碳排放驱动因素分析基础上,利用岭回归方法对基准、低碳和高耗能3种情景下的碳排放峰值进行了预测。研究发现:(1)8大细分行业达峰是工业部门整体达峰的前提。基准情境下仅轻工和石油业能够2030年达峰,而低碳情境下各行业均能在2030年前达峰,高耗能情境下各行业只有在2040年前后才能达峰;(2)工业部门整体碳减排潜力为8.52亿吨且可实现提前5年达峰,但同时也存在15.85亿吨的增排风险,这将导致达峰时间推迟11年;(3)化工和钢铁业属于高减排潜力—高增排风险行业,采掘业属于高减排潜力—低增排风险行业,轻工、机电和电力业属于低减排潜力—高增排风险行业,纺织和石油业则属于低减排潜力—低增排风险行业。因此,未来中国应加快全国碳市场建设,合理分配不同行业间碳排放配额,进而促进中国经济高质量发展。Predicting the peak time and size of China's industrial sector carbon emissions under different scenarios has important reference value for peak target management.Based on the analysis of the carbon emission driving factors of China's industrial sectors and eight sub-sectors,this paper uses the ridge regression method to predict the peak carbon emissions under the three scenarios of benchmark,low carbon and high energy consumption.The research found that:(1)Peaking of the eight sub-sectors is the premise for the overall peaking of the industrial sector.In the baseline scenario,only the light industry and petroleum industries can reach their peak in 2030.In the low-carbon environment,all industries can reach their peak before 2030.In the context of high energy consumption,industries can only reach their peaks around 2040;(2)The overall carbon emission reduction potential of the industrial sector is 852 million tons and the peak can be reached 5 years ahead of schedule,but there is also a risk of increased emissions of 1.585 billion tons,which will delay the peak time by 11 years;(3)The chemical and steel industries belong to industries with high emission reduction potential-high emission increase risk,extractive industries belong to industries with high emission reduction potential-low emission increase risk,and light industry,electromechanical and power industries belong to low emission reduction potential-high emission increase risk.Industries,textiles and petroleum are industries with low emission reduction potential-low emission increase risk.Therefore,China should speed up the construction of the national carbon market and rationally allocate carbon emission allowances among different industries,so as to promote the high-quality development of the Chinese economy.

关 键 词：工业 细分行业 碳排放 峰值 

分 类 号：F061.3[经济管理—政治经济学]