济南市2008—2018年流行性出血热流行特征及时空分布  

Study on epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial distribution of epidemic hemorrhagic fever in Jinan City,2008-2018

作　　者：高尚[1] 刘建宝[1] 常彩云[1] 刘洪庆[2] 于秋燕 GAO Shang;LIU Jianbao;CHANG Caiyun;LIU Hongqing;YU Qiuyan(Jinan Center for Disease Control and Prervention,Shandong 250021,China;School of Public Halth and Management,Wei fang Medical University,Shandong 261053,China)

机构地区：[1]济南市疾病预防控制中心,山东济南250021 [2]潍坊医学院公共卫生与管理学院,山东潍坊261053

出　　处：《海峡预防医学杂志》2020年第3期1-4,共4页Strait Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：山东省医药卫生科技发展计划(No.2017WS877)。

摘　　要：目的研究济南市流行性出血热(EHF)的流行病学特征,分析其时空分布,为防控工作提供依据。方法从国家疾病监测信息系统中,获取济南市EHF疫情资料,进行描述性分析、空间自相关分析及时空扫描分析。结果济南市2008—2018年累计报告406例,年均发病率0.59/10万;10~11月份为高峰;病例主要集中在30~69岁(79.6%),以农民(80.5%)为主,性别比2.3∶1;平阴、章丘、历城、济阳和商河是主要高发地区(89.4%);全局自相关分析结果,2008—2018年显示空间上存在正相关(Moran’s I指数0.0301~0.1760),存在空间聚集性;局部自相关分析热点区域已由东南部的章丘区一带转移到西南部的平阴县一带;空间扫描分析,全市共探测到1个一类聚集区和3个二类聚集区共4个时空聚集区,最大可能聚集区以平阴县安城镇为中心,覆盖了东阿镇等8个乡镇(街道),聚集区半径为23.07 km,高发时段2012年12月~2018年4月(LLR=58.41,RR=6.67,P=0.000)。结论济南市流行性出血热发病热点,有由东向西移动的趋势,应加强热点地区的防控工作,加大对男性及农民等重点人群的健康教育。Objective To astudy the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial distribution of epidemic hemorrhagic fever(EHF) in Jinan City for the disease control and prevention. Methods The EHF data of Jinan City was collected from the National Infectious Disease Reporting Information System and analyzed by descriptive analysis,spatial autocorrelation analysis and space-time scanning analysis. Results Totally 406 cases were reported from 2008 to 2018 in Jinan City and the mean incidence was 0.59/10~5. The peak month was from Oct. to Nov. The cases were mainly aged 30 to 69(79.6%) and in farmers(80.5%).The gender ratio of cases was 2.3∶1 and the main high-incidence areas were in Pingyin,Zhangqiu,Licheng,Jiyang and Shanghe(89.4%). The results of global autocorrelation analysis showed that there was positive correlation in space(Moran’s I index 0.0301-0.1760) from 2008 to 2018 and there existed spatial aggregation. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the hot spot area was transferred from Zhangqiu District in the southeast to Pingyin County in the southwest. Four cluster areas(one first-class cluster and three second-class clusters) were detected by spatial-temporal clustering analysis. Anchen town in Pingyin County, the most likely cluster area was taken an as the center,covering eight towns/streets such as Dong’e town. The radius of the cluster area was 23.07 km. The high incidence period was from Dec.2012 to Apr.2018(LLR=58.41,RR=6.67,P=0.000). Conclusion The hotspots of EHF in Jinan City show a tendency to move from east to west. The disease control and prevention in hotspot areas and health education for key populations such as men and farmers should be strengthened in the future.

关 键 词：流行性出血热(EHF) 流行特征 空间自相关 时空聚集性 

分 类 号：R512.8[医药卫生—内科学]