中美双边关税变化对两国工业行业利润的影响  

The Impacts of Sino-US Bilateral Tariff Changes on the Industries’Profits of Both Countries

作　　者：李昭华[1] 刘梦姿 LI Zhaohua;LIU Mengzi

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学经济学院,430074

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2020年第8期82-99,共18页Journal of International Trade

摘　　要：本文从理论和实证两个角度分析中美双边关税变化对两国工业行业利润的短期和中长期影响。根据理论模型,短期中本国关税变化对国内行业利润有正向间接影响,外国关税变化对本国利润有直接负效应和间接正效应;中长期本国关税变化对本国的内销企业和出口企业的利润具有相反的间接作用,外国关税变化对本国行业利润仍有双重效应。同时对1999—2014年三个不同样本的面板数据进行计量分析,结果表明:短期内本国削减最终品关税能促使国内工业行业利润提升,本国中间品和外国最终品的关税减让会令工业行业损失利润;关税变化的作用及显著性随时间变化呈降低趋势,且在中长期出现与短期相反的作用;事后分析结果显示本国进口自由化有利于本国工业行业利润的中长期增长。本文将研究视角转向双边贸易和生产者,创新性地考察了不完全自由进入条件下的中长期均衡,丰富了对中美双边贸易的研究。This paper analyzed the short-term and mid-long-term impacts of Sino-US tariff changes on industries’profits for both countries theoretically and empirically.According to the theoretical model,domestic tariff changes have a positive indirect impact on domestic industries’profits,while foreign tariff changes have a direct negative effect and an indirect positive effect on domestic profits in the short term.In the mid-long term,domestic tariff changes have opposite indirect effects on the profits of pure domestic enterprises and export enterprises,and foreign tariff changes still have a dual effect on the profits of domestic industries.Through the quantitative analysis of three different panel data samples from 1999 to 2014,we find that the tariff reduction of final products in home country can boost their industries’profits,but home country’s reducing tariffs of intermediate products or trade partner’s reducing tariffs of final products is harmful for domestic industries’profits.The effects and significance of the tariff changes are decreasing over time and the mid-long-term effects are opposite to the short-term.The results of post-hoc analysis indicate that the liberalization of imports is conducive to the mid-long-term growth of domestic industries’profits.This paper focused on producers and investigated the midlong-term equilibrium innovatively,which has enriched the studies on Sino-US trade.

关 键 词：中美双边贸易 行业关税 行业利润 Melitz-Ottaviano模型 

分 类 号：F745[经济管理—国际贸易]