中国与新加坡双边贸易流量及潜力研究  

Research on Bilateral Trade Flow and Potential between China and Singapore

作　　者：李雨桐 汪晶晶[1] 朱光辉 Li Yutong;Wang Jingjing;Zhu Guanghui(School of Economics and Trade,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830052;Research Institute of Science&Technology Development Strategy of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,Urumqi Xinjiang 830052)

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学经济与贸易学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830052 [2]新疆维吾尔自治区科技发展战略研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《对外经贸》2020年第8期15-18,34,共5页FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS & TRADE

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金资助项目“丝绸之路经济带核心区建设中新疆与中亚国家农业合作研究——以哈萨克斯坦为例”(项目编号:2016D01B008);中国博士后科学基金第65批面上资助项目“基于企业调查的农业跨国投资区位决策研究——以新疆为例”(项目编号:2019M653902XB);大学生创新项目“中国与新加坡双边贸易流量及潜力研究”(项目编号:dxscx2019163)。

摘　　要：采用2014—2018年联合国贸易统计数据,从贸易规模与贸易结构等方面切入,采用贸易结合度、贸易产品结构和贸易引力模型等实证分析方法,研究在21世纪“海上丝绸之路”的倡议下,分析中国与新加坡两国的贸易现状、贸易互补性和贸易潜力。研究结果表明:中国与新加坡的贸易潜力在不断增长,中国对新加坡的出口潜力大于进口潜力;双方贸易规模总体稳中有升,中国处于贸易顺差状态;中新两国进出口结构不尽合理,主要表现为产业内贸易。因此,两国应利用21世纪“海上丝绸之路”建设契机,增进双方贸易交流,加强两国合作,充分发挥各自优势,促进双方贸易进一步发展。Based on the trade statistics of the United Nations from 2014 to 2018,this paper analyzes the trade status,trade complementarity and trade potential of China and Singapore under the initiative of"maritime Silk Road"in the 21st century by using empirical analysis methods such as trade combination,trade product structure and trade gravity model.The results show that:the trade potential of China and Singapore is growing,among which the export potential of China to Singapore is greater than the import potential;the trade scale of both sides is generally stable and rising,and China has always been in a state of trade surplus;the import and export structure of China and Singapore is not reasonable,mainly reflected in intra industry trade.Therefore,the two countries should take advantage of the 21st century"maritime Silk Road"construction opportunity,enhance bilateral trade exchanges,strengthen bilateral cooperation,give full play to their respective advantages,and promote the further development of bilateral trade.

关 键 词：双边贸易潜力 中国 新加坡 引力模型 

分 类 号：F74[经济管理—国际贸易]