当前低油价环境下的国家能源安全——基于国际原油价格周期性宽幅波动的分析  

National energy security under the current low oil price--Based on the analysis of periodic wide fl uctuation of international crude oil price

作　　者：冯志强[1] 褚王涛[1] 邬长武[1] 孔祥宇[1] FENG Zhiqiang;CHU Wangtao;WU Changwu;KONG Xiangyu(Sinopec Petroleum Exploration&Production Research Institute)

机构地区：[1]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2020年第8期77-84,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：一般来说,商品价格由供需关系决定,然而原油的金融属性和政治属性决定了国际油价具有宽幅波动特性,未来仍可能出现阶段性高油价。金融属性助推油价波动,机构预测具有追涨杀跌特征,金融巨头通过操控预期,助推油价宽幅波动,实现获利。大国博弈是油价宽幅波动的根源,美国对原油生产、运输通道、石油金融、地区稳定和国际政治格局都具有强大的控制力;美国页岩油气大发展进一步加大了其话语权,中美油价利益上发生了根本反转,美国有条件、有能力发起能源战,推高油价遏制中国发展。石油长期高度对外依赖是中国能源安全关键症结,中国石油公司应利用当前低油价窗口期,着眼长远,积极构建高效的信息科技合作共享体系,全面提升综合国际竞争力,借鉴西方大石油公司“逆油价周期”的成功经营理念,推动海外供给来源多元稳定,助力实现开放条件下的能源安全。The commodity price is usually determined by its supply and demand and however,the global crude oil price demonstrates its characteristics of wide fl uctuations caused by its unique fi nancial and political attributes,which means periodic high oil prices can still be expected in the future.The fi nancial attribute determines that oil price fl uctuations can be augmented by market expectations.The oil price forecasts of institutions normally chase ups and downs and the major fi nancial investors obtain profi ts by magnifying the fl uctuations and manipulating oil price expectations.The power collides of major nations also contribute to the wide fl uctuations in oil prices.The United States has strong power to control oil production,oil transportation,oil fi nances,regional stability,and global geopolitics,which was greatly enhanced by the success of shale oil in the United States.The common interests for China and the United States in oil prices have been reversed to become in confl ict with each other.The United States has the intention and ability to launch an energy war to push up oil prices to suppress China’s development.Longterm high dependence on foreign oil is the key crux of China’s energy security.Chinese oil companies should leverage the current window of low oil prices,plan with a long-term strategic view,actively establish an eff ective collaboration system for information and technology,improve global comprehensive competitiveness,adapt the proven“counter-cyclical”business strategy of western oil majors,and promote diversifi ed and stable overseas supply sources in order to achieve energy security under open conditions.

关 键 词：国际原油价格 周期性宽幅波动 库存 边际成本 市场预期 石油进口 能源安全 逆油价周期 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F764.1