基于国际比较的我国远景城镇化水平研判及其思考  

Judgments and Estimates of the Future Urbanization Level of China in View of International Comparison

作　　者：陈鹏[1] 魏来[1] CHEN Peng;WEI Lai

机构地区：[1]中国城市规划设计研究院村镇规划研究所,北京100037

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2020年第7期33-39,共7页Urban Development Studies

摘　　要：一个国家应有适于国情的远景城镇化水平,对其研判和测算须相对准确,防止造成政策误导。通过综合分析一般性影响因素和中国特殊国情,并对各国城镇化水平的统计口径差异进行校核,认为中国应该也可能实现80%-85%的远景城镇化水平。要平稳渐进地实现城镇化目标,就要加快制度与政策的改革,特别是在解决市民化和留守问题的同时提升城市治理水平,盘活农村土地以释放其资本价值,实现不同层级城镇的协调发展和各类社会主体的共赢。This paper considered that each country should have its own ideal urbanization level applied to its own national conditions. The judgments and estimates of the future Urbanization Level must be objective and scientific, for the inaccurate forecast may mislead the process of policy-making. Through the comprehensive analysis of the universal influence factors and China′s special national conditions and the check of differences between statistical coverage of Urbanization Level in different countries, it concluded that China′s future Urbanization Level is probable to reach the purpose of 80 percent to 85 percent. In order to achieve the ideal urbanization target reasonably, smoothly and gradually, it required to speed up the reform and breakthrough of the institution and policy. The keys lie in solving the problem of civilization and left-behind children as well as improving the standards of urban governance, revitalizing the rural land to release its capital value, and fulfilling the target of coordinated development between towns and cities and all kinds of social subjects.

关 键 词：远景城镇化水平 国际比较 中国国情 政策意义 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]