2020年全球变暖会创新高吗?  

How about the global warming in 2020?

作　　者：黄艳艳[1] 王会军[1] HUANG Yanyan;WANG Huijun(Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2020年第4期585-591,共7页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFA0600703);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41991283)。

摘　　要：近百年全球气候变暖已是既定事实。伴随着冰川的持续消融、多年积雪的不断融化、海平面的上升、极端事件的增加,气候系统正面临着严峻挑战。2020年是特殊的一年,澳洲山火持续数月,蝗灾肆虐,突破历史记录的洪涝和干旱频发,因而全球变暖问题备受关注。本文利用最新的再分析资料,预测了2020年全球年平均地表温度;2020年全球冬季温度年际增量出现较大正值,结合温室气体、海冰和海表温度距平信号,预测2020年全球变暖将持续。采用年际增量方法进行定量预测,结果显示,2020年全球地表温度很可能超过2016年而成为近百年来最热的一年。Warming of the climate system in recent 100 years is unequivocal.Under global warming,the amounts of snow and ice have diminished,the sea level has risen,and the extreme weather and climate events have increased.The climate system is facing severe challenges.2020 is becoming a special year on record for the bushfires in Australia,the locust plagues and the frequently extreme weather and climate events.How about the global warming in 2020?Based on the ERA5 reanalysis data,the global annual mean surface temperature(ANNT)in 2020(ANNT-2020)is predicted.It suggests that the anomalies of the ANNT-2020 compared to the climatology during 1981—2010 and the interannual increment of the ANNT in 2020 will both be positive,since the interannual increment of the global winter surface temperature(DJFT)appears over 0.2℃in 2020 and the signals of the anomalies in greenhouse gases,sea ice and sea surface temperature are positive for ANNT in 2020.Using the interannual increment approach,the quantitative prediction of ANNT-2020 shows that the ANNT-2020 will most possibly exceed the ANNT-2016 and 2020 will become the warmest year on record.

关 键 词：全球变暖 温度预测 年际增量方法 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]