基于CMIP6强迫模拟分析人为气溶胶的气候效应(二)——诊断方法在分类评估中的重要性  

A modeling study on anthropogenic aerosol effects based on CMIP6 forcing,partⅡ:the importance of calculation methods in classification analysis

作　　者：史湘军[1,2] 刘娇娇 朱寿鹏 吉璐莹 张海鹏 沈沛洁 陈伯民 李震坤[3] SHI Xiangjun;LIU Jiaojiao;ZHU Shoupeng;JI Luying;ZHANG Haipeng;SHEN Peijie;CHEN Bomin;LI Zhenkun(Laboratory of Meteorological Disasters,Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Science and Technology Innovation Team for East Asian Monsoon and Regional Climate Change/Earth System Model Center,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;International Pacific Research Center,University of Hawaii at Manoa,Honolulu 96822,USA;Climate Center of Shanghai Meteorological Bureau,Shanghai 200030,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害教育部重点试验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合试验室/东亚季风与区域气候变化科技创新团队/地球系统模拟中心,江苏南京210044 [2]美国夏威夷大学国际太平洋研究中心,夏威夷檀香山96822 [3]上海市气候中心,上海200030

出　　处：《大气科学学报》2020年第4期630-639,共10页Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2017YFA0604000);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41775095);南京信息工程大学人才启动经费(2243141601067)。

摘　　要：对气溶胶气候效应开展分类评估并探讨诊断方法的合理性。人为气溶胶辐射效应对计算云辐射强迫的影响为0.38 W·m^-2。诊断评估气溶胶对云辐射强迫的影响需要排除这个偏差。两种基于不同试验设计诊断得出的半直接效应分别为0.21和0.09 W·m^-2,存在显著差异。主要原因可能是人为气溶胶影响云辐射强迫的不同机制之间在模式模拟过程中不断地相互交织,不是简单的线性叠加关系。模式诊断得出的Twomey效应不仅包括Twomey效应本身,还包括Twomey效应引起的部分快速调整。总之,利用模式评估分析人为气溶胶气候效应需要注意审查试验设计和诊断方法的合理性。This study illustrates how aerosol affects the top of atmosphere(TOA)radiation flux in the NUIST model,using a hypothetical anthropogenic aerosol forcing determined by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6.There are three ways by which anthropogenic aerosol affects TOA radiation flux.First,anthropogenic aerosol affects TOA radiation flux through the changes in aerosol optical properties,known as the aerosol radiative effect.This effect mainly depends on anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcing,and is not related to the Twomey effect.Second,anthropogenic aerosol affects TOA radiation flux through the changes in cloud optical properties,referred to as aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing.These effects include the Twomey effect and semi-direct effect.Finally,anthropogenic aerosol affects TOA radiation flux via the changes in other optical factors.Compared with the first two ways,this third one is negligible.This study focuses on the second way,and discusses the methods used for estimating anthropogenic aerosol effects.In order to distinguish contributions to aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing from semi-direct and indirect effects,we added two experiments:Rad and Tmy.The Rad experiment only considers the anthropogenic aerosol optical properties,which the Tmy experiment only considers the anthropogenic aerosol Twomey effect.Including the experiments used in Part 1,there are four experiments in total:Base,Rad,Tmy and Both.The results of the Rad and Base experiments show that anthropogenic aerosol semi-direct effect is estimated at 0.21 W·m^-2.Semi-direct effect could also be obtained as the difference between the aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing from Both and Base experiments(i.e.semi-direct effect and Twomey effect)and the aerosol effects on cloud radiative forcing from Tmy and Base experiments(i.e.Twomey effect).This semi-direct effect is 0.09 W·m^-2,significantly less than those from the Bad and Base experiments.The difference between the Tmy and Base experiments shows that the effec

关 键 词：CMIP6 人为气溶胶强迫 Twomey效应 半直接效应 分类评估 诊断方法 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]