贸易自由化与就业水平——基于结构模型的理论和实证研究  

Trade Liberalization and Employment Levels A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on a Structural Model

作　　者：王孝松[1] 张忆濛 田思远 Wang Xiaosong;Zhang Yimeng;Tian Siyuan(Renmin University of China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京100872

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第5期106-122,共17页Wuhan University Journal：Philosophy & Social Science

基　　金：教育部重大专项课题(19JZDZ002);国家自然科学基金面上项目(71673280);国家社会科学基金重大项目(17ZDA097)。

摘　　要：基于包含中间品贸易、最终品贸易、行业异质性和投入产出关系的一般均衡定量模型,可以得到量化一国就业水平的均衡方程。通过使用扩展后的投入产出模型得到上述方程的关键系数,并以此分析贸易自由化与就业水平的关系,反事实模拟结果表明:2000年至2014年间,中国制造业出口增长总共使得中国国内的就业水平提高了约3.34%,出口增长有力推动了我国国内就业,是提升我国就业水平的重要途径;美国对华制造业关税下降对我国就业水平的影响十分有限,使我国国内就业水平上升约0.005%;中国对美制造业关税的下降对我国国内就业水平的影响较大,使我国国内就业水平上升约2.7%。未来我国可以对特定行业采取针对性的贸易政策,以应对贸易战和全球新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情暴发的负面影响,从而实现稳就业。Based on a general equilibrium quantitative model that includes intermediate goods trade,final goods trade,industry heterogeneity and input-output relations,an equilibrium equation can be obtained which quantifies the level of employment in a country.This paper finds the key coefficients of the above equation by using the expanded input-output model,and analyses the relationship between trade liberalization and employment level.A counterfactual simulation indicates that the“export expansion”of China’s manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2014 has increased the domestic employment level by about 3.34%.The“export expansion”has effectively promoted China’s domestic employment and is an important means to enhance our employment level.The decline in the United States’manufacturing tariffs on China has a very limited impact on China’s domestic employment level,which has increased by about 0.005%.The decline in China’s manufacturing tariffs on the United States has a greater impact on China’s domestic employment level,which has increased by about 2.7%.China can use targeted trade policies for specific industries in the future in order to cope with the negative impacts of trade war and COVID-19,so that a stable level of employment can be achieved.

关 键 词：中国国内就业 关税 中间投入份额 增加值份额 贸易战 中美关系 

分 类 号：F745.0[经济管理—国际贸易]