胸腔镜下肺部术后并发症发生率的预测模型构建  

Construction of Predictive Model for Postoperative Complications in Thoracoscopic Lung Surgery

作　　者：许川[1] 刘迪[2] 金星[2] 胡剑[2] 梅宏[2] XU Chuan;LIU Di;JIN Xing;HU Jian;MEI Hong(Guizhou Provincial People's Hospital,Guiyamg 550002,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省人民医院胸外科,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州省人民医院,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《肿瘤学杂志》2020年第7期596-599,共4页Journal of Chinese Oncology

摘　　要：[目的]针对胸腔镜下肺部手术术后并发症发生率的预测模型做出改良研究。[方法]选取2018年4月至2019年4月住院期间的肺癌患者184例,采用胸腔镜下的肺部切除手术。利用POSSUM评分系统构建出术后并发症发生率的模型,由此确定影响并发症的影响因素。[结果]影响到肺部切除手术并发症的独立影响因素主要有手术时间和手术范围,以及FEV1%、LVEF、APTT指标。建立的新预测模型方程为In(R/1-R)=-6.314+0.124α+0.286β。预测模型的临界值为0.135,特异性为97.79%,敏感度为89.64%。[讨论]该模型具有较好的预测价值。当预测并发症发生率在13.5%以上时,表明患者在术后有很大概率发生并发症,需要在术前做好对应的准备工作。[Objective]To construct a predictive model of postoperative complications in thoracoscopic lung surgery.[Methods]One hundred and eighty-four patients with lung cancer who underwent thoracoscopic lung resection in our hospital from April 2018 to April 2019 were enrolled in the study.A predictive model of postoperative complication was constructed using the POSSUM scoring system to determine the factors related to the incidence of complications and to evaluate the surgical invasion effects.[Results]Multivariate regression analysis showed that the surgical range,FEV1%,LVEF,APTT indicators were the independent factors related to postoperative complications of lung resection.The established equation of prediction model was In(R/1-R)=-6.314+0.124α+0.286β.The predictive model had a specificity of 97.79% and a sensitivity of 89.64% with a critical value of 0.135.[Conclusion]The constructed predictive model has good predictive value.When the complication rate is 13.5%,it indicates that the patient has a high probability of complications after surgery,and the corresponding preparation work needs to be done before surgery.

关 键 词：胸腔镜 肺部手术 并发症 预测模型 

分 类 号：R734.2[医药卫生—肿瘤]