基于GTD数据库的“一带一路”沿线恐怖袭击目标特征研究  

Research on the Characteristics of Terrorist Attack Targets Along the“Belt and Road”Based on GTD Database

作　　者：刘硕[1] 李雨聪 郭伟锋 Liu Shuo;Li Yucong;Guo Weifeng(Criminal Investigation Police University of China,Shenyang 110854;The Central Institute for Correctional Police,Baoding 071000)

机构地区：[1]中国刑事警察学院,沈阳110854 [2]中央司法警官学院,保定071000

出　　处：《情报杂志》2020年第7期18-22,共5页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“大数据背景下中国反恐情报预警体系研究”(编号:16BTQ064);中国刑事警察学院2015年度院级重大项目(社科类)培育计划(中央高校基本科研业务费项目)“大数据背景下全国刑侦联查平台类案分析研究”(编号:3242016017)研究成果之一。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]2013年9月,习近平总书记首次提出在原有古丝绸之路的基础之上,建设"丝绸之路经济带"和"21世纪海上丝绸之路"的倡议,然而"一带一路"沿线途经国家及地区恐怖主义活动极为活跃,在营造极端恐怖的社会氛围的同时,也对我国"一带一路"的顺利建设产生了极大的阻碍,因此对于"一带一路"沿线恐怖主义的研究尤为重要。[方法/过程]引用了经济学领域的Lorenz曲线与基尼系数,将恐怖袭击的频率以及造成的死亡人数视为一种特殊的"财富",通过对这种"财富"分配不均等程度的分析,可对"一带一路"沿线恐怖袭击目标的特征进行分析研究。[结果/结论]通过对"一带一路"沿线恐怖袭击目标的研究,可得出"一带一路"沿线恐怖袭击目标在受袭击频率以及造成死亡人数方面的特征,从而为我国制定"一带一路"沿线反恐对策、顺利推进"一带一路"提供了可靠的依据。[Purpose/Significance]In September 2013,General Secretary Xi Jinping put forward for the first time the initiative of building"Silk Road Economic Belt"and"Marine Silk Road of the 21st Century"on the basis of the old Silk Road,but the"Belt and Road"pass through some states where regional terrorist activities are extremely active,while creating an extremely scary social atmosphere,it also has a great obstacle to China’s smooth construction of the"Belt and Road".Therefore,the study of terrorism along the"Belt and Road"is particularly important.[Method/Process]This article quotes the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient in the field of economics,and regards the frequency of terrorist attacks and the number of deaths as a special"wealth".Through the analysis of the unequal distribution of such wealth,we can analyze the characteristics of the terrorist attacks along the"Belt and Road".[Result/Conclusion]Through the study of the target of terrorist attacks along the"Belt and Road",we can draw the characteristics of the terrorist attack targets along the"Belt and Road"in the frequency of attack and the number of deaths,thus providing a reliable basis for China to formulate the"Belt and Road"anti-terrorism strategy along the line and promote the"Belt and Road"smoothly.

关 键 词：一带一路 恐怖袭击目标 LORENZ曲线 基尼系数 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]