公共和私有部门数字货币的发展趋势、或有风险与监管考量  

Development Trend,Contingent Risks and Regulatory Considerations of Digital Currencies in the Public and Private Sectors

作　　者：赵越强 Zhao Yue-qiang

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院应用经济学博士后流动站 [2]中国外汇交易中心博士后流动站

出　　处：《经济学家》2020年第8期110-119,共10页Economist

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国地区金融风险指数的构建与应用”(18ZDA094);上海市金融学会青年课题“虚拟数字货币跨市场风险传染特征及监管政策有效性研究”(SHFS20202-13).

摘　　要：公共部门和私有部门竞争加速的背景下,数字货币的种类和功能特征不断增加,对国际货币体系、支付结算以及数字经济生态均产生重要影响。本文梳理了公共和私有部门数字货币的发展趋势,比较分析了典型数字货币的运行特征以及面临的或有风险。研究认为公共部门数字货币将在零售型和批发型等多场景与私有部门数字货币展开竞争;我国央行数字货币(DC/EP)进展加速,要在国际标准规范制定和应用平台建设等方面抓住机遇窗口期。在监管层面,建议审慎对待数字货币技术创新的不确定性,推动制定国际标准规范;发挥"中央银行-商业银行"双层运营优势,积极开展中间业务,避免金融脱媒;优化金融基础设施,提高区块链风险治理能力;推动国际数字经济领域形成多极化格局,避免寡头垄断对我国数字货币发展空间的挤压。Under the background of accelerated competition between the public and private sectors, the types and functional characteristics of digital currency are increasing, which has an important impact on the international monetary system, payment and settlement, and the digital economic ecology. This article sorts out the development trend of digital currencies in the public and private sectors, and comparatively analyzes the operating characteristics of typical digital currencies and the contingent risks. The research shows that the public sector digital currency will compete with the private sector digital currency in many scenarios such as retail and wholesale;the development of China’s central bank digital currency(DC/EP) is accelerating,and we should seize the window of opportunity in terms of international standard formulation and application platform construction. At the regulatory level, it is suggested to promote the development of international regulatory standards and treat the uncertainty of digital currency technology innovation prudently;give scope to the double-layer operation advantages of"central bankcommercial bank", actively carry out intermediary business and avoid financial disintermediation;optimize financial infrastructure and improve the risk management ability of block chain;promote the formation of multi polarization pattern in the field of international digital economy, and avoid the squeeze of oligopoly on China’s digital development space.

关 键 词：数字货币 发展趋势 或有风险 监管建议 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]