基于D-S证据理论的地震应急救援群决策  

Group decision-making for earthquake emergency rescue plan based on D-S evidence theory

作　　者：宋英华[1,2] 吴昊[1,2] 刘丹[1,2] 王喆[1,2] SONG Yinghua;WU Hao;LIU Dan;WANG Zhe(China Research Center for Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China;School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学中国应急管理研究中心,湖北武汉430070 [2]武汉理工大学安全科学与应急管理学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2020年第5期163-168,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFC0807000);国家社会科学基金青年项目资助(16CTQ022);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2019III021GX,2019III053GX)。

摘　　要：为解决地震应急救援群决策中专家偏好冲突问题,提出一种基于登普斯特-沙弗尔(DS)证据理论的专家偏好型应急救援群决策方法。首先,考虑方案执行时间和方案资源的客观属性以及专家的主观偏好,在传统地震救援群决策过程基础上,设计改进的专家偏好型群决策过程;然后,借鉴应急协商模型,设计考虑方案执行时间和资源的偏好函数,基于三角模糊数定义专家主观偏好程度,并运用D-S证据理论综合专家偏好度作方案选择;最后,以2017年九寨沟地震为试验算例,开展方法对比性试验和偏好敏感性试验。结果表明:与仅考虑方案执行时间和资源或基于三角模糊偏好相比,考虑方案执行时间和资源偏好的决策方案更能满足实际地震应急救援需求,且专家的平衡性偏好更有利于地震应急救援方案的正确选择。In order to solve expert preference conflict in group decision of earthquake emergency rescue plan,an expert preference rescue group decision method based on D-S evidence theory is proposed.Firstly,considering execution time,objective attributes of resources and subjective preferences of experts,an improved group decision-making process was designed based on traditional one.Secondly,preference functions considering program execution time and resources were designed with emergency negotiation model a reference,experts’subjective preferences were defined based on triangular fuzzy numbers,and their preferences were synthesized through DS evidence theory for plan selection.Finally,with Jiuzhaigou earthquake in 2017 as an experimental example,method comparison and preference sensitivity tests were carried out.The results show that decision-making scheme which considers execution time and resource preference is more consistent with actual rescue needs than that considering only execution time and resources or that based on triangular fuzzy preference.Moreover,balanced preference of experts is more conducive to choosing a right earthquake emergency rescue plan.

关 键 词：登普斯特-沙弗尔(D-S)证据理论 地震 应急救援群决策 专家偏好 三角模糊数 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学]