考虑风电不确定性的两阶段模式经济调度  

Two-stage Mode Economic Dispatching Considering Wind Power Uncertainties

作　　者：李娟[1] 李浩宁 郭浩 董光睿 李宏伟 LI Juan;LI Haoning;GUO Hao;DONG Guangrui;LI Hongwei(School of Electrical Engineering,Northeast Electric Power University,Jilin 132012,China)

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学电气工程学院,吉林132012

出　　处：《电力系统及其自动化学报》2020年第8期130-137,共8页Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA

摘　　要：由于风电不确定性不仅影响火电厂出力的分配,而且影响系统频率的变化,为了在经济调度中考虑这方面的问题,提出采用两阶段优化调度模式。第1阶段基于马尔可夫链利用历史风速进行调度日风速的初步预测,得到风电出力的预测值,并以火电机组发电成本最小为目标,确定火电厂的基础出力;第2阶段利用调度日已发生时段的风速,基于多场景概率法修正第1阶段预测风速,结合动态潮流将不平衡功率由各机组按比例分担,建立以频率偏差和网损最小为目标的实时优化调度模型,确定各机组实际出力。最后通过粒子群优化算法形成基于Pareto曲线的多目标解集,并以IEEE9节点为例进行仿真验证。The uncertainties in wind power not only affect the distribution of power output from thermal power plants,but also affect changes in system frequency.With the consideration of this problem in economic dispatching,a two-stage optimal dispatching mode is proposed.On the first stage,a method based on Markov chain is used to preliminarily predict the wind speed on the dispatching day with the utilization of historical wind speed values,and the predicted output values of wind power are obtained.In addition,the basic output from thermal power plants is determined with the objective of minimizing their generation costs.On the second stage,the wind speed prediction on the first stage is revised based on the multi-scenario probability method by utilizing the wind speed values that have already occurred on the dispatching day.Afterwards,the unbalanced power is shared proportionally by each unit with the combination of dynamic power flow,and a real-time optimal dispatching model with the objective of minimizing the frequency deviation and network loss is established to determine the actual output from each unit.Finally,a multi-objective solution set based on the Pareto curve is formed by the particle swarm optimization algorithm,and an example of IEEE9-node system is simulated to verify the proposed method.

关 键 词：经济调度 两阶段模式 动态潮流 多目标 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]