末日的辩证:军备竞赛及其危害  

Doomsday Dialects:The Arms Race and Its Limitations

作　　者： 张广翔(译)[2] 刘颜青(译) A.G.Arbatov

机构地区：[1]俄罗斯科学院Е.М.普里马科夫世界经济和国际关系国立研究所国际安全中心,莫斯科117997 [2]吉林大学东北亚研究院,长春130012

出　　处：《吉林大学社会科学学报》2020年第5期116-126,237,238,共13页Jilin University Journal Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDB064)。

摘　　要：当今世界的国际安全正朝着一个全新的阶段步履蹒跚地走去,但在人们的生活中,伴随着军事情报交换的核武器或其他武器的军备竞赛依然存在,并且没有任何严格的限制和规定。美俄两国为了自身的利益,接连退出了《中导条约》,而《第三阶段削减战略武器条约》在2021年到期后可能不再延长,同时,即将举行的审议《不扩散核武器条约》的2020年例会也将注定毫无结果。过去半个世纪的历史证明,拒绝地区性的军控条约不仅无益于国家安全,而且会产生相反的效果。同时,军备竞赛留下了许多教训,例如新武器的研制会严重威胁竞争对象的安全而不是带来互利互惠。最为重要的是,竞争双方竟然用一系列军控协议来维持和扩大本国核武器的规模,这样一来,和平只能靠核威慑来保证。如今,当务之急是维护《不扩散核武器条约》,因为就当下的时局来看,这仍然是可能的;其次,就《第三阶段削减战略武器条约》的延长事宜达成共识,或者就下一阶段的削减战略武器条约展开谈判;再次,进一步完善《不扩散核武器条约》。总之,只有稳健且不中断的裁军行动以及国际政治和战略环境的积极变化,才能维持世界和平。The international security is sleepwalking to a fundamentally new stage:life in a nuclear and other arms race without any restrictions or rules,along with the exchange of military information.The denunciation of the Treaty(INF)on the elimination of intermediate-range missiles is almost inevitable;STARTⅢIs likely to expire in 2021 without extension;and the next review conference of the Treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons(NPT)in 2020 is almost doomed to failure.However,the important experience of the past half-century is that the renunciation of treaties in this area has never enhanced the security of states,but has always weakened it.In the same time,the history of the arms race has given many examples of how the primacy in the creation of new weapons subsequently turned out to be a loss,not a gain,for the security of one side or another.The most important lesson is that nuclear deterrence can be a guarantee of peace only when combined with the maintenance and expansion of the nuclear arms control system and regimes.Today,the first priority is to save the INF Treaty,which is still possible.Then the second is the agreement on the extension of the STARTⅢTreaty after 2021 or the urgent start of negotiations on the follow-on strategic treaty.After that,measures should be taken to strengthen the NPT.Only consistent disarmament steps in parallel with positive changes in the international political and strategic environment can enhance universal security in the coming century.

关 键 词：军备竞赛 核武器 核理论 高超音速武器系统 导弹防御 

分 类 号：D815.2[政治法律—国际关系] E163[政治法律—政治学]