产业支持政策、进口国市场需求对欧盟可再生能源产品出口的影响分析  

Analysis on the Impact of Industrial Support Policies and Market Demand of Importing Countries on EU Renewable Energy Products Export

作　　者：侯伟丽[1] 李思敏 刘星 HOU Wei-li;LI Si-min;LIU Xing

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]不详

出　　处：《中国地质大学学报（社会科学版）》2020年第4期103-114,共12页Journal of China University of Geosciences(Social Sciences Edition)

基　　金：武汉大学“双一流”建设引导专项国别和区域研究项目“欧盟可更新能源政策的发展变化及对我国的影响和借鉴意义”(413100057/WHCC);武汉大学“两型”社会研究院自主课题“环境与发展研究”。

摘　　要：本文使用1996—2017年间的面板数据,建立考虑多边阻力的扩展的引力模型,定量分析了欧盟主要的可再生能源产品贸易国的产业支持政策对其出口的影响。实证研究结果显示,欧盟在风电和光伏产业实施的支持政策对产品出口有显著的正向促进作用,支持政策强度每增加一个百分点,能促进风电产品出口增加5.69%,光伏产品出口增加2.20%。在风电产业中影响是显著且长期持续的;在光伏产业中影响显著,但政策实施后4到5年即在统计上变得没有意义。进口国的市场需求对风电产品出口产生显著的正向影响,但对光伏产品出口影响不显著。考虑到国际市场竞争,本文将中国可再生能源支持政策强度作为门槛变量,发现在风电产业存在显著的单一门槛效应,当中国对风电产业的支持政策强度高于门槛值后,欧盟支持政策对其风电产品出口的促进作用大幅下降,在光伏产业则不存在门檻效应。技术性质和市场结构不同是造成两个产业研究结果差异的重要原因,欧盟的经验对我国制定支持政策具有借鉴意义。Using panel data from 1996 to 2017 to establish an expanded gravity model that takes into account multilateral resistance,this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of industrial support policies of major EU renewable energy product trading countries on their exports.Empirical research results show that the support policies implemented by the EU in the wind and solar photovoltaic industries have a significant positive effect on product exports.The increase in the support policy intensity by one percen can promote the export of wind products by 5.69% and the export of solar photovoltaic products by 2.20%.The impact is significant and long-lasting in the wind industry.The impact is significant in the solar photovoltaic industry,but it becomes statistically meaningless in 4 or 5 years.The market demand of importing countries has a significant positive impact on the export of wind power industry,but it has no significant impact on the export of solar photovoltaic industry.Considering the competition in the international market,the paper takes the strength of China's renewable energy support policy as a threshold variable and finds that there is a significant single threshold effect in the wind industry.When the strength of China's support policy for the wind industry is higher than the threshold,the export promotion of the EU support policy has dropped significantly in the wind industry,and there is no threshold effect in the solar photovoltaic industry.Differences in technical nature and market structure are important reasons for the differences in the research results of the two industries.EU's experience offers implications for China's formulation of support policies.

关 键 词：欧盟 可再生能源产业 产业政策 引力模型 面板门槛模型 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]