基于Copula函数的抚河流域廖坊与洪门水库丰枯遭遇分析  

The analysis of the wetness-dryness encountering of Liaofang and Hongmen reservoirs in Fuhe river based on Copula function

作　　者：刘沁薇 LIU Qinwei(Hydrology Bureau of Jiangxi Province,Nanchang 330009,China)

机构地区：[1]江西省水文局,江西南昌330009

出　　处：《江西水利科技》2020年第4期271-275,305,共6页Jiangxi Hydraulic Science & Technology

基　　金：江西省水文局2018年度青年科技创新基金项目(SWJJ-KT201807).

摘　　要：本研究引入Copula函数方法,对抚河流域两大重要水库———廖坊与洪门水库展开丰枯遭遇状况研究.结果表明:在全年、汛期、非汛期三大时间尺度里,两大水库丰枯遭遇特性基本类似,丰枯同步的频率远大于丰枯异步的频率;在丰枯同步频率中,同平的频率最高,说明两大水库在所有丰枯遭遇中同为平水年的可能性最大;在非汛期尺度上同枯的频率最高,故在两大水库实际调度过程中,尤其是在枯水年份应特别兼顾其丰枯同步性.本研究可为抚河流域水库群联合优化调度提供一定的决策依据.Based on the inflow of the two biggest reservoirs in Fuhe river basin,this study used Copula function and analyzed the wetness-dryness encountering of Liaofang and Hongmen reservoirs.The results show the characteristics of the two reservoirs are similar in the period of the full year,flood season and non-flood season,and the synchronous frequency is much higher than the asynchronous frequency.The synchronous frequency of normal flow is the highest,and high flow year is the lowest.The synchronous frequency of low flow year is highest in the period of non-flood season,so more attention shall be paid to the synchronization of the wetness-dryness encountering in dry season.This study can provide some decision basis for multi-reservoir optimal operation in Fuhe river basin.

关 键 词：丰枯遭遇 COPULA函数 抚河流域 频率分析 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]