太湖蒸发量对未来气候变化响应的初步模拟分析  

Preliminary simulation analysis of the response of Lake Taihu evaporation to future climate change

作　　者：郝晓龙 王咏薇[1,2] 高雅琦[3] 张圳 王伟[2] HAO Xiaolong;WANG Yongwei;GAO Yaqi;ZHANG Zhen;WANG Wei(School of Atmosphric Physics,Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Yale-NUIST Center on Atmospheric Environment,Nanjing 210044,China;Wuhan Regional Climate Center,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气环境中心,南京210044 [3]武汉区域气候中心,武汉430074

出　　处：《气象科学》2020年第4期505-512,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(41275024,41505005)。

摘　　要：与深水湖泊相比,太湖等浅水湖泊更容易发生富营养化和水资源危机,且对气候变化的响应更为敏锐。本文利用气候模式产品数据驱动CLM4-LISSS湖泊陆面过程模型,模拟分析未来(2010—2100年)RCP2.6、RCP4.5、以及RCP8.5不同温室气体排放情景下太湖蒸发量的变化特征及其影响因子。结果表明:(1)CLM4-LISSS模型湖表温度的观测值与模拟值的相关系数为0.94,均方根误差为0.85℃,准确的湖表气温模拟使得通量的结果也比较准确,潜热模拟与观测的相关系数在0.78,均方根误差为55.32 W·m^-2;(2)2010—2100年,三种不同温室气体排放情景下太湖蒸发都呈现增加的趋势,但增量比例不同,RCP2.6,RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,蒸发量每10 a增加量分别为23.7 mm,29.2 mm和34.5 mm。蒸发量的增加速率随着辐射强迫的增加而增大,其变化主要受风速与水汽压差的乘积的影响。Compared with deep-water lakes,shallow lakes such as Lake Taihu are more prone to eutrophication and water crisis are more sensitive to climate change.In this paper,climate model product data was used to drive a lake land surface process model to simulate the future(2010—2100)evaporation of Lake Taihu under RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.The results show:(1)CLM4-LISSS lake model can simulate the diurnal variation characteristics of lake surface temperature well,the correlation coefficient between the observed lake surface temperature and the simulated is 0.94 and the root mean square error is 0.85℃.Because the CLM4-LISSS lake model is more comprehensive for latent heat flux calculations,it has good simulation results for latent heat flux.The correlation coefficient between the observed value and the simulated value is 0.78,and the root mean square error is 55.32 W·m^-2.(2)From 2010 to 2100,the evaporation of Lake Taihu increased under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios.According to the scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5,the increase of evaporation per decade were 23.7 mm,29.2 mm,and 34.5 mm,respectively.Evaporation rate increases with an increasing amount of radiative forcing increases.The change of latent heat flux is mainly affected by the product of wind speed and water vapor pressure difference.

关 键 词：蒸发量 湖泊陆面过程模型 未来情景 气候变化 太湖 

分 类 号：P404[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]