印度对华示强外交的行为逻辑  

Behavioral Logic of India’s Tough Diplomacy toward China

作　　者：胡仕胜[1] 王珏[2] Hu Shisheng;Wang Jue

机构地区：[1]中国现代国际关系研究院南亚所 [2]国际关系学院图书馆

出　　处：《现代国际关系》2020年第7期25-34,60,共11页

摘　　要：印中加勒万河谷冲突使两国关系跌至1962年边界战争以来的最低谷。此次冲突看起来具有偶然性,实则是莫迪政府对华奉行示强外交、追求"高风险高收益"政策效果的一种必然结果。其后印度对华示强外交的举措更加频密,带有寻机报复的直接考量,更有其深层逻辑。其中,既有印度常年追求"绝对安全"与主导地区秩序的政策惯性,也有莫迪政府有意利用外部战略环境利好谋求对华"变道超车"的发展路径选择。印中关系中原有的结构性矛盾以及印国内政治生态的右倾色彩则为该冲突及莫迪政府对华示强外交预置了底色。此次冲突再次表明,两国关系现有运行机制与架构效能衰减,难以平稳运转两个毗邻新兴大国之间的复杂互动,中印关系到了非重构而难以重启的关口。The Galwan conflict has brought Sino-Indian relations to their lowest point since the 1962 border war.Although the breakout of the conflict itself is obviously accidental,it is also an inevitable result of New Delhi’s persistent practice of its"Forward Policy"in the frontier region.In addition to the immediate considerations of seeking revenge to the casualties suffered by the Indian patrolling forces in the Galwan conflict,there is also a variety of deeper logic behind the successive tough policies against China in the first half of this year.This conflict has proved once again that the current framework is less effective in framing the bilateral relations.How to coexist stably and peacefully between two emerging neighboring powers has become a challenge urgently needed to be addressed by the two governments.It is time to reframe China-India relations.

关 键 词：加勒万河谷冲突 印中关系 印度对华示强外交 莫迪政府 

分 类 号：D822.335.1[政治法律—政治学]