中国老年失能年龄模式及未来失能人口预测  

The Age Mode of Elderly Disability in China and the Disabled Population Projection

作　　者：王金营[1] 李天然[1] WANG Jinying;LI Tianran(School of Economics,Hebei University,Baoding Hebei,071000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北大学经济学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《人口学刊》2020年第5期57-72,共16页Population Journal

基　　金：河北省科技厅,河北省软科学计划项目:河北省残疾发生与地域社会经济发展的关系研究(184576172D)。

摘　　要：老年失能模式及失能水平反映了人口的健康状况,其变化趋势对照护服务需求和供给产生了重要影响。本文以2002-2014年中国老年人健康长寿影响因素跟踪调查(CLHLS)数据为基础,利用参数区间估计思想和非参数法测算得到不同类型的按龄老年人口失能模式,预测未来老年人失能规模和结构的状态及发展趋势。结果显示:第一,不同人口状态下的老年失能年龄模式不同。其按城乡和性别分类的失能模式呈指数型增长曲线,而按城乡和不同失能程度分类的失能模式则表现出异质性,轻度失能的老年失能模式为线性式增长曲线或指数型增长曲线;中、重度老年失能的年龄模式则为“J”型增长曲线。第二,随着人口老龄化加深和老年人口规模的增加,未来失能老年人口规模将不断扩大,65岁及以上失能老年人口规模将由2020年的1867万人左右上升至2050年的5205万人左右;失能老年人占总人口的比重也将持续上升,2050年失能人口约占老年人口总数的13.68%。因此需重视高龄失能照护服务需求,也要及早制定政策防止老年人过早失能。The level and the age mode of elderly disability can indicate the population health status,and the fluctuation of that would exert an important impact on the demand and supply of the care services.Based on the CLHLS data from 2002 to 2014,the paper combines the parameter and the non-parameter methods to estimate the elderly disability rate in different ages and types,and shows the development trends of the dis⁃abled elders in future,including the quantity and the structure of it.The result reveals that there exist differ⁃ent age modes in different types of disabled people.Specially,the age mode of elderly disability classified by region and gender experiences an exponential growth trend with age.But the age mode of elderly disabili⁃ty classified by region and disability level is different from that,which featured with distinct characters:the age mode of mild level disability shows a linear growth trend or an exponential growth trend with age;While the age mode of moderate and severe level disability shows the“J”curve upward trend with age.Besides,with the accelerating population aging and the increasing number of the elderly,the disabled population size is expected to continuous rise.The number of disabled elders aged 65+would go up from 18.67 million in 2020 to 52.05 million in 2050,and the proportion of that is predicted to account for 13.68%in 2050.Therefore,it is necessary to attach an importance to meet the tremendous care needs of the disabled elders and should take some effective measures to prevent the premature disability.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 失能模式 老年健康 失能人口 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]