广东省热带气旋降水的时空分布特征和重现期估算  

Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation in Guangdong Province and Estimation of Recurrence Intervals

作　　者：李珊珊[1] 程正泉[1] 龚月婷 LI Shan-shan;CHENG Zheng-quan;GONG Yue-ting(Meteorological Observatory of Guangdong Province,Guangzhou 510640)

机构地区：[1]广东省气象台,广东广州510640

出　　处：《广东气象》2020年第4期1-5,共5页Guangdong Meteorology

基　　金：广东省气象局项目(2018Q05);广东省气象台科学技术研究项目(202010)。

摘　　要：为了了解广东省热带气旋降水时空分布特征和估算重现期,利用客观天气图分析法,将热带气旋降水从站点降水观测资料中分离,在此基础上统计和分析了1951—2012年间热带气旋降水的时空分布特征,并基于Gumbel分布函数对热带气旋年总降水量(ATP)和年最大降水量(AEP)进行了重现期估算。结果表明:1951—2012年间广东省热带气旋降水呈减少趋势,1980年之前明显多于1980年之后。广东省热带气旋降水分布为北少南多,且极端热带气旋过程带来的降水量可超过热带气旋年均降水总量。拟合结果显示Gumbel分布函数可以较好地估算广东省热带气旋降水重现期;在相同的重现期下,ATP的空间差异较AEP大;重现水平越高的热带气旋过程产生的降水空间分布越不均匀。Using objective analysis based on weather charts, this work,for the purpose of determining the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of tropical cyclone precipitation in Guangdong province and estimating its recurrence intervals,identifies tropical cyclone(TC)-related precipitation from site observations and the result of which is based to statistically summarize and analyze its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics from 1951 to 2012. Then, the Gumbel distribution function is used to estimate the recurrence intervals of TC annual total precipitation(ATP) and TC annual extreme precipitation(AEP). The result is shown as follows. In the years studied, the TC-related precipitation in Guangdong shows a decreasing trend with the rain amount much larger before 1980 than after it. The TC-related precipitation distributes less in the north than in the south of the province and the rain resulting from extreme TC processes can be more than the annual mean total by TC. As shown in fitting statistics, the Gumbel distribution function can well estimate the recurrence intervals of TC-related precipitation in the province. With the same recurrence intervals, the spatial difference of ATP is larger than that of AEP. The higher the degree of recurrence, the more uneven the spatial distribution of precipitation caused by TC processes.

关 键 词：气候学 热带气旋 降水 重现期 Gumbel分布 广东 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]