山西不同历时强降水的统计特征及趋势变化  

Statistical Characteristics and Trend Change of Different Duration Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Shanxi Province

作　　者：苗爱梅[1] 王洪霞[1] 武捷[2] MIAO Aimei;WANG Hongxia;WU Jie(Shanxi Meteorological Observatory,Taiyuan 030006,Shanxi,China;Shanxi Meteorological Bureau,Taiyuan 030002,Shanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省气象台,山西太原030006 [2]山西省气象局,山西太原030002

出　　处：《高原气象》2020年第4期796-807,共12页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：山西省重点研发计划项目(201603D321125,201703D221032-2);山西省领军人才项目(SXKLJTQ201510001)。

摘　　要：利用山西省109站1981-2018年的短历时强降水资料,采用趋势系数、归一化、中尺度天气分析等方法,对1 h、3 h、6 h、12 h短历时强降水的极值、频次、日、月以及年代际等趋势变化和主要影响系统进行统计分析。结果表明:(1)极值空间分布具有山区大于盆地、南部大于北部,时效越短,极值分布的局地性越强等特点。(2)12 h内不同历时强降水出现频次具有"南高北低、山区高于盆地、东部山区高于西部山区、东南明显集中"的空间分布特点。(3)不同历时强降水集中出现在每年的7-8月,其中,1 h≥20 mm的短历时强降水出现频次最高。(4)1 h雨量≥20 mm、3 h雨量≥30 mm以及12 h雨量≥50mm强降水发生频次日内分布均为单峰型,6 h雨量≥50 mm强降水发生频次日内分布为双峰型。(5)1 h、3 h和6 h短历时强降水年发生次数的变化趋势为山西省东南部的增长速率最大;12 h短历时强降水年发生次数的变化趋势为山西省的东部和西部山区最大。(6)6 h和12 h与1 h和3 h短历时强降水的主要影响系统有明显差异,61%的6 h和12 h短历时强降水个例为系统性降水与多个中尺度强降水的组合造成。Based on the short-duration heavy precipitation data of 109 stations in Shanxi Province from 1981 to2018,the extreme value,frequency,day,month and interdecadal trend changes of heavy precipitation in different diachronic periods of 12 hours were analyzed by using trend coefficient,climatic tendency rate,normalization and mesoscale weather analysis methods.The results show that:(1)The spatial distribution of the extreme value is higher over the mountain area than the basin and greater over the south than the north of Shanxi.The shorter duration of the extreme value,the stronger local distribution of the extreme value.(2)Within 12 hours,the occurrence frequency of heavy precipitation in different diachronic periods has the spatial distribution characteristics of being high in the south and low in the north,higher in the mountain area than in the basin area,higher in the eastern mountain area than in the western mountain area,and obviously concentrated in the southeast.(3)Severe precipitation with different diachronic periods occurs in July-August every year,and the frequency of short-duration heavy precipitation with 1 h≥0 mm is the highest.(4)The intra-day distributions of heavy precipitation with 1 hour rainfall(≥20 mm),3 hours rainfall(≥30 mm)and 12 hours rainfall(≥50 mm)are single peak curves,while the intra-day distribution of heavy precipitation with 6 hours rainfall(≥50 mm)is double peak curve.(5)The growth rates of the annual occurrence times variation of 1 hour,3 hours,and 6 hours shortduration heavy precipitation are the highest in southeastern Shanxi Province,which is the largest in the eastern and western mountain areas of Shanxi Province of 12 hour short duration heavy precipitation.(6)The main influence systems of 6 hours and 12 hours short duration heavy precipitation are obviously different from the systems of 1 hour and 3 hours short duration heavy precipitation.61%of 6 hours and 12 hours short duration heavy precipitation cases are caused by the combination of systematic precipitation an

关 键 词：短历时强降水 统计特征 趋势变化 影响系统 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]