基于AHP与改进TOPSIS权值算法的高速公路施工方案风险评价  

Risk evaluation of highway construction plan based on AHP and improved TOPSIS weight algorithm

作　　者：蒋浩鹏 孙建诚 杨文伟 朱双晗 王坤 JIANG Haopeng;SUN Jiancheng;YANG Wenwei;ZHU Shuanghan;WANG Kun(School of Civil Engineering and Transportatio n,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China;Hebei Provincial Communications Planning and Design Institute,Shijiazhuang 050000,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津300401 [2]河北省交通规划设计研究院,河北石家庄050000

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2020年第8期698-703,共6页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：河北省交通运输厅科技项目(编号:Y-090217)。

摘　　要：高速公路施工通常受多种风险的影响,针对当前高速公路施工方案缺少合适完整的风险评价体系和模型这一问题,首先运用层次分析法(AHP)从人员风险、工程材料风险、施工机械风险、其他风险4个方面和15项具体指标构建了高速公路施工方案风险2级评价指标体系,其次提出改进权值的逼近理想解排序模型(TOPSIS)对其风险进行系统评价,通过结合国内某高速公路试验段提出的3个施工方案进行分析和计算,结果表明:3个预设施工方案(Y1~Y3)综合优越度分别为56.7%,49.1%,45.2%,Y1>Y2>Y3。因此确定方案1为最优方案,实施此方案可有效降低风险,缩短工期,将该模型应用于高速公路建设中可取得良好效果。Highway construction is usually affected by many risks.In view of the lack of suitable and complete risk assessment system and model for the current highway construction program,a two-level evaluation index system for highway construction project risk is constructed by using AHP in four aspects,such as personnel risk,engineering material risk,construction machinery risk and other risks,and 15 specific indicators.An improved weight approximation ideal solution(TOPSIS)method is proposed to systematically evaluate the risks.Based on analysis and calculation of three construction schemes proposed for a test section of an expressway in China,the results show that the comprehensive superiority degrees of the three preset construction plans(Y1~Y3)are 56.7%,49.1%and 45.2%respectively,in the order of Y1>Y2>Y3.Therefore,the first option is determined as the optimal solution,which shows that the implementation of this program can effectively reduce the risk and shorten the construction period.Application of the model in highway construction can achieve good results.

关 键 词：高速公路 施工方案 层次分析法 改进TOPSIS 风险指标 

分 类 号：U415.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]