中国省际贸易流量再估算与贸易演变特征研究  

Re-estimation of China’s Inter-provincial Trade Flow and Research on Trade Evolution Characteristics

作　　者：李自若 夏晓华[2] 黄桂田[1] Li Ziruo;Xia Xiaohua;Huang Guitian

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济学院 [2]中国人民大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2020年第8期35-49,共15页Statistical Research

摘　　要：本文首次构建1992-2017年我国28个省(区、市)省内贸易、省际双边贸易以及国际贸易数据库,包括各省省际货物运输量、省际贸易总额、省际部门贸易额以及各省各部门进出口贸易数据。基于该数据库,本文从重量、贸易总额以及部门贸易角度全面分析我国省际贸易演变特征。研究结果显示,第一,各区域国内贸易总额与其经济规模成正比,货物贸易在西北、西南等欠发达区域更加重要,服务贸易在北部沿海、东部沿海、南部沿海和中部等发达区域影响更大;第二,各区域国内贸易比例高于国际贸易,区域内贸易比例高于区域间贸易,且制造业产品区域内贸易比例高于初级产品;第三,国际贸易对北部沿海、东部沿海、南部沿海等区域影响更大,国内贸易对中部、西北和西南区域更加重要;第四,省内贸易比例呈上升趋势,从侧面反映国内市场一体化程度有待提高。最后,为了分析原始数据误差对省际贸易流量估算结果的影响,本文引入蒙特卡洛模拟技术计算省际贸易流量估算结果的不确定性,结果显示估算结果的相对标准差不高于6.12%~8.44%。For the first time ever,this paper constructs a database of intra-provincial,inter-provincial,and international trade covering 28 provinces in China from 1992 to 2017.The database includes inter-provincial freight volume,inter-provincial total trade volume,inter-provincial trade data of different industries,as well as import and export trade data of different provinces and industries.Based on this database,China’s interprovincial trade evolution characteristics are analyzed comprehensively from the perspective of weight,total trade volume,and trade by industry.The results show that the total domestic trade volume is positively proportional to the economic scale of each region,the trade in goods is more important in the undeveloped regions of northwest and southwest China,while trade in services has more influence in the north,east,southern coastal and central developed regions of China.Each region strongly prefers domestic trade and intraregional trade to international trade and inter-regional trade,and intra-regional trade proportion of manufacturing products is higher than that of primary products.International trade exerts a greater influence on north,east,southern coastal regions,while domestic trade is more significant to central,northwest and southwest China.The increasing trend of intra-provincial trade proportion reflects the lack of China’s domestic market integration.At last,in order to analyze the impact of original data error on the estimation of inter-provincial trade flow,the Monte Carlo technique is introduced to calculate the uncertainty of inter-provincial trade flow estimation results,whose relative standard deviation is no more than 6.12%~8.44%.

关 键 词：省际贸易数据库 贸易演变特征 不确定性分析 蒙特卡洛模拟技术 

分 类 号：F222.33[经济管理—国民经济]