海南环岛高速强降雨灾害风险分析  

Analysis on Meteorological Disaster Risk of Highway Around Hainan Island Caused by Heavy Rainfall

作　　者：杜建华 郑虹晖[1,2] 赵蕾 陈明[2,3] DU Jianhua;ZHENG Honghui;ZHAO Lei;CHEN Ming(Hainan Provincial Meteorological Information Center,Haikou 570203,China;Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China;Hainan Provincial Meteorology Service Center,Haikou 570203,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省气象信息中心,海南海口570203 [2]海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203 [3]海南省气象服务中心,海南海口570203

出　　处：《干旱气象》2020年第4期683-688,共6页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：海南省重点研发计划项目“基于数据融合的南海台风降水预报技术研究”(ZDYF2019213)资助。

摘　　要：基于2010—2014年G98海南环岛高速公路降水资料及公安交管部门提供的交通事故资料,分析海南环岛高速公路交通事故分布特征,发现强降雨是诱发交通事故最多的灾害性天气。运用灰色关联度方法针对降雨引发的交通事故进行评估分析,通过死亡人数、受伤人数和直接经济财产损失3项评估指标得到40次典型个例的灰色关联度排序。以年累计降雨日数、最大日降雨量、最大小时降雨量作为致灾因子危险性指标;以环岛高速公路气象灾害风险普查得到的强降雨致灾隐患路段、单向车流量作为承灾体脆弱性指标;以因降雨造成的交通事故发生频次和事故灰色关联度最大值作为承灾体易损性指标,构建环岛高速强降雨气象灾害风险区划指数模型,计算11个高速公路管理站的风险区划指数,得到海南环岛高速公路强降雨气象灾害的客观风险空间分布,发现定安—万宁路段是强降雨高风险路段,在交通气象服务中应重点关注。Based on precipitation data and traffic accident data provided by Hainan traffic management departments on G98 highway around Hainan island from 2010 to 2014,the distribution characteristics of expressway traffic accidents around Hainan island were analyzed.It was found that heavy rainfall was the most catastrophic weather that induced traffic accidents.The grey correlation method was used to evaluate and analyze the traffic accidents caused by heavy rainfall.Based on three evaluation indexes including death toll,injury toll and direct economic property loss,the grey correlation degrees order of 40 typical traffic accident cases were obtained.The accumulated rainfall days,maximum daily rainfall and maximum hourly rainfall as hazard index of hazard formative factor,the high-risk road of heavy rainfall,single vehicle flow as fragility indexes of disaster-bearing bodies,the traffic accident frequency caused by rainfall and maximum grey correlation degree of accidents as vulnerability indexes of disaster-bearing bodies,the model of risk zoning index of heavy rainfall meteorological disasters around the island was constructed.Then the risk zoning indexes of 11 management stations were caculated,and spatial distribution of risk zoning around Hainan island was also obtained.It was pointed out that the road from Ding’an to Wanning was the high risk section under heavy rainfall weather condition,which should be paid more attention in traffic meteorological service.

关 键 词：高速公路 降雨 灰色关联度 风险区划 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]