ECMWF细网格模式探空在阿勒泰地区短时强降水预报中的统计检验  

Statistical Test of ECMWF Fine Mesh Model Sounding in Short-term Heavy Rainfall Forecast in Altay

作　　者：李博渊 赵江伟[2] 庄晓翠[2] LI Boyuan;ZHAO Jiangwei;ZHUANG Xiaocui(Center of Central Asia Atmospheric Science Research,Urumqi 830002,China;Altay Meteorological Bureau,Altay 836500,China)

机构地区：[1]中亚大气科学研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]阿勒泰地区气象局,新疆阿勒泰836500

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2020年第3期61-67,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中亚大气科学研究基金(CAAS201921);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费(IDM2016001);新疆气象局青年基金(Q201713)。

摘　　要：采用2013—2018年5—9月ECMWF细网格资料和阿勒泰地区36次短时强降水资料,用Micaps平台的模式探空模块计算T-log P图及其对流参数,运用统计学方法进行了误差检验。结果表明:模式探空T-log P图48 h预报时效内一致性较高(>72%),尤其是24 h预报时效内(>92%);72 h预报时效内总指数和干暖盖指数及垂直风切变、60 h预报时效内沙氏指数、48 h预报时效内风暴相对螺旋度和36 h预报时效内850与500 hPa温度差、对流温度、最大抬升指数、抬升指数以及24 h预报时效内K指数、700与850 hPa假相当位温差、大风指数等对流参数的3种误差均较小(<3.5),相关系数较高(>0.60),特别是沙氏指数、K指数、700与850 hPa假相当位温差、垂直风切变和风暴相对螺旋度的3种误差<1.5。T-log P图的一致性随时效的延长而减小,对流参数的误差随预报时效的延长变化不一致,在强对流潜势预报业务中注意订正运用。Based on the data of ECMWF fine grid from May to September and the data of 36 shorttime heavy rainfall processes from 2013 to 2018 in Altay region,T-log P diagrams and convection parameters were calculated by mode sounding module of Micaps platform,statistical method was applied to the error test.The results show that the T-log P chart of model sounding has high consistency in the prediction time of 48 h(>72%),especially within 24-hour forecast time limit(>92%).Total index,dry warm cover index and vertical wind shear within 72-hour forecast time limit,the Sha’s index was within the 60-hour forecast time limit.The relative helicity of the storm was within the forecast time limit of 48 hours.The temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 h Pa,convective temperature,maximum uplift index and uplift index were within 36-hours forecast time limit.the K index was within 24-hours forecast time limit.Pseudo-equivalent temperature difference and gale index of 700 hPa and 850 hPa,and so on,all of these convective parameter,the three kinds of errors are smaller(<3.50),the correlation coefficient was higher(>0.60).Particularly,the Sha’s index,K index and pseudo equivalent temperature difference between 700 and 850 hPa,vertical wind shear and storm relative helicity,all of the three errors are less than 1.5.The consistency of T-log P graph decreases with the extension of time.The errors of convection parameters are not consistent with the prolongation of prediction time.In the operation of strong convective potential forecast,attention should be paid to the revision and application.

关 键 词：ECMWF细网格 模式探空 统计检验 阿勒泰 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]