中国夏季降水预测因子潜在技巧分布图及应用  

Potential Skill Map of Predictors Applied to the Seasonal Forecast of Summer Rainfall in China

作　　者：刘伯奇[1] 祝从文[1] Liu Boqi;Zhu Congwen(Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2020年第5期570-582,共13页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家重点研究发展计划(2018YFC1505904);国家自然科学基金项目(41830969);中国气象科学研究院基本科研业务费专项(2018-Z006);中国气象科学研究院科技发展基金(2020KJ009);中央引导地方科技发展专项(ZY18C12)。

摘　　要：影响我国夏季汛期降水异常的因子繁多,不同因子之间复杂的相互作用制约我国夏季降水季节预测水平。目前动力模式对降水预测技巧水平较低,如何开发客观统计预报方法,提高我国夏季降水预报技巧依然存在挑战。该文基于最小二乘法拟合和交叉检验方法,提出一种搜索预测因子潜在预测技巧的方法(潜在技巧分布图),并基于该方法开发预测因子自动选择器,建立中国夏季降水异常自动统计预测模型。与传统线性相关分析相比,潜在技巧分布图不受极端气候事件影响,可直观展现具有显著预测技巧的前兆信号,而预测因子自动选择器则能从潜在技巧分布图中自动筛选最优预测因子,获得逐年不同的预测因子,更符合中国夏季降水异常影响因子多样性的客观事实。在完全剔除预测当年信息的回报试验中,该预测模型对1999—2019年中国夏季汛期降水异常的历史回报技巧明显高于动力模式。通过方差订正,历史回报降水的PS评分从71.00分提高到82.10分,显示了该模型的潜在预报潜力。Anomalous summer rainfall in China is affected by many factors,whose complex interaction restricts the predictability of Chinese summer rainfall(CSR).The predicting skill of the state-of-the-art dynamic models on the CSR is still limited,leaving challenges in developing objective statistical predicting methods.A method for searching potential predicting skill of predictors(i.e.,potential skill map,PSM)is proposed,which can be used to select predictors automatically based on the PSM,and a new automatic statistical prediction model of the CSR is established.Compared with traditional linear correlation analysis,the PSM using the cross-validation concept not only reflects the potential predicting skills of predictors on predictands,but is free from effects of extreme events.It is completely based on real-time statistical predicting procedure,which aims to find sufficient conditions for predictands in logical.The PSM is an important supplement to the traditional correlation coefficient map.They work together to provide potential predictors with necessary and sufficient conditions.The predictor automatic selector takes advantage of the idea of ensemble forecasting.It selects predictors with the most significant potential forecasting skill from the PSM,and then generates final forecast products by averaging a large number of predicting members.The year-by-year automatic selection of the predicators is thus realized.This solution doesn’t rely on subjective experiences of foreasters,and also provides a new way to further investigate the predictability of the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon.This new automatic statistical prediction model of the CSR based on the PSM and the predictor automatic selector shows a high reforecast skill for the CSR.In the 21-year reforecasting experiment from1999 to 2019,predictors in the previous autumn and winter seasons are used to predict the CSR.Results show an average symbol agreement rate of 60%and the mean anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.436 between the re

关 键 词：中国夏季汛期降水异常 季节预测 交叉检验 潜在技巧分布图 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]