区域能源消费总量与结构的预测方法研究——基于广东省相关数据的分析  

Prediction of Regional Energy Consumption and Structure——Take Guangdong Province as an Example

作　　者：陈晖 蔡宇涵 谢伦裕 

机构地区：[1]南方电网能源发展研究院有限责任公司 [2]中国人民大学应用经济学院

出　　处：《价格理论与实践》2020年第5期161-164,176,共5页Price:Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71701087);国家自然科学基金(71703163);南方电网公司科技项目(ZBKJXM20180375)。

摘　　要：能源是实现国民经济平稳运行和长期增长的基础,也是进一步提高人民生活水平的必要保障。预测能源消费总量和结构,对于政府部门制定区域发展目标和规划、实现经济高质量发展具有重要意义。本文在讨论能源消费影响因素的基础上,结合ARIMA模型和ARDL模型构造能源消费预测模型,以广东省为例,对长期能源消费总量和结构进行分析和预测。基于预测结果,本文从多角度为能源发展提出政策建议。Energy is the basis of the stable growth of national economy.Prediction of the total amount and structure of energy consumption in the long run is of great significance for governments to formulate regional development goals and plans and realize high-quality economic development.This paper combines ARIMA model and ARDL model to construct an energy consumption prediction model,and takes Guangdong Province as an example to analyze and predict the total amount and structure of long-term energy consumption.Based on the predicted results,this paper puts forward policy suggestions for energy development from the aspects of controlling the total amount of energy consumption,optimizing the energy consumption structure,ensuring energy supply,and improving the energy market.

关 键 词：能源消费预测 能源消费结构 ARDL模型 能源供给 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F224