新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情数据挖掘与离散随机传播动力学模型分析  

Analysis of COVID-19 epidemic traced data and stochastic discrete transmission dynamic model

作　　者：唐三一[1] 唐彪 Nicola Luigi Bragazzi 夏凡 李堂娟 何莎 任鹏宇 王霞 向长城 彭志行[6] 吴建宏 肖燕妮[3] Sanyi Tang;Biao Tang;Nicola Luigi Bragazzi;Fan Xia;Tangjuan Li;Sha He;Pengyu Ren;Xia Wang;Changcheng Xiang;Zhihang Peng;Jianhong Wu;Yanni Xiao

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学数学与信息科学学院,西安710062 [2]Department of Mathematics and Statistics,York University,Toronto M3J 1P3,Canada [3]西安交通大学数学与统计学院数学与生命科学交叉中心,西安710049 [4]西安交通大学第二附属医院,西安710004 [5]湖北民族大学数学与统计学院,恩施440015 [6]南京医科大学公共卫生学院,南京211166

出　　处：《中国科学：数学》2020年第8期1071-1086,共16页Scientia Sinica：Mathematica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(批准号:11631012,61772017和11961024)资助项目。

摘　　要：新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情已经蔓延至全国各地,包括陕西省在内很多省份的早期疫情均以输入病例为主,后期的疫情在严格的防控措施下也已呈下降趋势.评价防控措施的有效性、分析人口流动对疫情的影响对于研究陕西省(或其他以输入病例为主的地区)疫情和未来应对突发性传染病有着重要的意义.根据陕西省卫生健康委员会(简称卫健委)公布的详实数据信息可以挖掘传播链(感染树),得到从发病到首诊、入院、确诊的中位持续时间,每日潜伏者类、感染者类、治疗者类的具体人数和感染者状态转移的空间分布.本文计算确定COVID-19疫情的控制再生数(1.48–1.69),并发展新的统计推断方法获得陕西省严控措施下的有效再生数;进而提出一个全新的融入了公共卫生干预和输入病例的离散随机COVID-19疫情传播模型,通过多源数据实现了模型的参数化,分析不同的流动模式、输入人口中感染者的比例对二次暴发风险的影响.主要结论显示,间歇性的人口流动、密切关注和有效隔离流动人口中的感染者能有效降低二次暴发的风险,为有序组织复工、复学提供决策支持.The epidemic of novel coronavirus pneumonia has spread throughout the country.The early epidemic cases in many provinces,including Shaanxi,are mainly imported cases.The latest epidemic situation has been decreasing under restrict prevention and control strategies.Accessing the efficacy of control measures,analyzing the impact of population flow on the epidemic situation are of great significance for the study of the epidemic situation in Shaanxi(or other areas with imported cases as the main cases)and the future response to emergent infectious diseases.According to the detailed data published by Shaanxi,we can obtain the transmission chains(infection tree),and the median durations from the illness onset to the first medical visit,to the admission,and then to the final confirmation.We can obtain the daily number of latent,infectious and hospitalized individuals and the spatial distribution of their state evolution.The control reproduction number of COVID-19 epidemic was determined(1.48–1.69).We develop the statistical inference method to calculate the effective regeneration number under the strict control measures in Shaanxi province.Furthermore,a novel stochastic discrete transmission model for COVID-19 was proposed,which integrates possible interventions and import cases.The parameterization of the formulated model was realized through multiple source data.Our main conclusion shows that intermittent population flow,close attention and effective isolation of the floating population can effectively reduce the risk of secondary outbreak,which consequently provides decision support for the orderly organization of returning to work/school.

关 键 词：新型冠状病毒肺炎 输入病例 离散随机模型 有效再生数 人口流动 

分 类 号：TP311.13[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论] O212.1[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术] R181.8[理学—概率论与数理统计]