基于航空器高度保持性能的风险碰撞模型优化  

Optimization of risk collision model based on altitude holding performance of aircraft

作　　者：左谛 许有臣 金开研 ZUO Di;XU Youchen;JIN Kaiyan(Aviation Data Communication Corporation,Bejing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]民航数据通讯有限责任公司,北京100191

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2020年第8期31-36,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：民航局科技创新引导资金项目(20150205)。

摘　　要：为提高Reich风险碰撞模型在“缩小垂直间隔”(Reduced Vertical Separation Minimum,RVSM)标准实施后的适用性。基于同一机型航空器的测高系统误差(Altimetry System Error,ASE)数据在超高空各高度层中并不服从相同分布且具有显著的统计学差异,针对现有的Reich模型对同一机型仍使用整个航空空域的ASE数值进行经验分布拟合的现状,对模型中ASE混合累积经验分布参数部分进行改进,添加高度层相关的参数,使原有仅根据机型进行累积的ASE经验分布细化为根据机型和高度层2部分进行累积。结果表明:改进后模型可准确体现ASE数据在不同高度层的差异性;采用改进的风险模型进行仿真计算,得到更加精确的结果;验证改进后模型的合理性和其在应用中的有效性。In order to improve the applicability of Reich risk collision model after the implementation of the reduced vertical separation minimum(RVSM)standard,based on the situation that the altimetry system error(ASE)data of aircraft with the same type do not follow the same distribution and have significant statistical difference in each altitude level of superaltitude,and aiming at the current status that the existing Reich model still uses the ASE values of the whole aviation airspace to conduct the empirical distribution fitting on the same aircraft type,the parameter part of ASE mixed cumulative empirical distribution in the model was improved,and the related parameters of altitude level were added,so that the ASE empirical distribution originally accumulated only according to the aircraft type was refined to the accumulation according to two parts of aircraft type and altitude level.The results showed that the improved model could accurately reflect the difference of ASE data in different altitude levels.The simulation calculation was carried out by using the improved risk model,and the more accurate results were obtained,which verified the rationality of the improved model and the effectiveness of the improved model in application.

关 键 词：Reich风险碰撞模型 模型优化 测高系统误差 RVSM标准 安全评估 非参数检验 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]