基于BL模型的出租车需求运价弹性研究  

Research on Taxi Demand Price Elasticity Based on BL Model

作　　者：笪媛 肖为周 秦菲菲 DA Yuan;XIAO Weizhou;QIN Feifei(School of Rail Transportation,Soochow University,Suzhou 215131,China)

机构地区：[1]苏州大学轨道交通学院,江苏苏州215131

出　　处：《森林工程》2020年第4期94-100,共7页Forest Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71301112)。

摘　　要：出租车是城市交通不可或缺的一部分,近年来网约车对出租车市场造成了一定的影响。为研究影响乘客选择出租车和网约车的因素,以及是否应该放开价格管制,本文构建基于二元Logit(Binary Logit)的选择模型,在苏州市开展出租车使用特征、选择偏好和价格意向的实证调查,根据参数显著性解释城市综合交通背景下出行方式选择的关键因素,对于出租车客运量与出租车运价使用最小二乘法建立对数计量经济模型,得出苏州出租车的需求运价弹性值,苏州市出租车起步价和里程价的价格弹性值均小于1,不宜放开价格管制,应该降低起步价或者上涨里程价。为出租车行业发展提供建议。Taxi is an indispensable part of urban transportation.In recent years,online car-hailing has caused some impact on the taxi market.In order to study the factors that influence passengers’choice of taxis and online car-hailing and whether price controls should be lifted,this paper constructs a binary Logit-based selection model,and conducts an empirical survey of taxi use characteristics,selection preferences and price intentions in Soochow.Based on the parameters,it explains the key factors of travel mode selection in the context of urban comprehensive traffic.The least squares method is used to established a logarithmic econometric model of passenger traffic volume and taxi price,and the demand price elasticity value of Suzhou taxis is obtained,and the price elasticity of the starting price and the mileage price of taxis in Suzhou are both less than 1,it is not appropriate to deregulate the price,and should lower the starting price or increase the mileage price.which provides suggestions for the development of the taxi industry.

关 键 词：城市出租车 需求运价弹性 二元Logit模型 出行方式选择 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]