自贸试验区的经济增长与外溢效应——基于改进的政策效应评估方法  

The Economic Growth and Spillover Effects of Pilot Free Trade Zone——Based on the Modified Policy Evaluation Approach

作　　者：刘一鸣 王艺明 刘志红[3] Liu Yiming;Wang Yiming;Liu Zhihong(School of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,P.R.China;The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,P.R.China;School of Public Finance and Taxation,Nanjing University of Finance and Economics,Nanjing 210023,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院金融系,济南250100 [2]厦门大学王亚南经济研究院,厦门361005 [3]南京财经大学财政与税务学院,南京210023

出　　处：《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2020年第5期118-130,共13页Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71803076);第67批中国博士后科学基金面上项目(2020M672030)。

摘　　要：自贸试验区构建了中国与世界各国交流合作的新平台,研究其政策效应对自贸试验区建设与发展具有重要的理论和实践意义,文章改进了Hsiao et al.基于面板数据的政策效应评估方法①,对上海自贸试验区的政策效应进行评估。实证结果显示,自贸试验区政策对上海经济增长产生了显著的正向效应,使上海2015Q1的GDP多增长了5.44%。同时,自贸试验区在对外贸易方面的优势对东部沿海省市的对外贸易和经济增长产生了显著的挤出或替代效应,对中西部其他省市也产生了正向或负向的外溢效应。在政策建议部分,文章提出,在推进自贸试验区探索和创新时应注意其负面效应,加快在全国范围内复制推广其经验的步伐。Pilot Free Trade Zone builds a new platform for exchanges and cooperation between China and the rest of the world.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the policy effect on the construction and development of the Pilot Free Trade Zone.This paper uses the adjusted panel-data policy evaluation approach by Hsiao et al.to assess the policy effect of Shanghai Pilot Free Trade Zone.The empirical results show that the Pilot Free Trade Zone policy has a significant positive effect on Shanghai's economic growth,which makes Shanghai's GDP increase by 5.44%in the first quarter of 2015.The policy effects of Free Trade Zone are positive,which has a greater influence on the GDP.The advantages of the Free Trade Zone in foreign trade have significantly impressed or replaced effects on the foreign trade and economic growth of the eastern coastal provinces and cities,and have also had positive or negative spillover effects on other provinces and municipalities in the central and western regions.This paper puts forward some policy implications that we should pay attention to the negative effects in the exploration and innovation of Pilot Free Trade Zone,and speed up the replication of its experience nationwide.

关 键 词：自贸试验区 基于面板数据的政策效应评估 经济增长 外溢效应 

分 类 号：F752.8[经济管理—国际贸易] F127[经济管理—产业经济]