近五年全球黄金价格分析及政策建议  

Global Gold Price Analysis in Recent 5 years and Policy Recommendations

作　　者：课题组 李宝庆[2] Research Group

机构地区：[1]不详 [2]中国人民银行西安分行

出　　处：《西部金融》2020年第5期4-12,21,共10页West China Finance

摘　　要：本文从黄金基本属性、全球黄金供需情况、黄金市场特点和近五年黄金价格走势出发,通过理论和实证分析,发现黄金需求、实际利率、货币数量、宏观政策的不确定性和美元指数对黄金价格产生了程度不同的影响。基于此,本文对未来国际黄金市场发展和黄金价格走势进行了分析,并提出根据市场价格走向适时调整黄金储备、实行主动型黄金管理、进一步开放黄金市场等政策建议。Based on the analysis of the basic properties of gold,the global gold supply and demand situation,the characteristics of gold market and the trend of gold price in the past five years,through theoretical and empirical analysis,the paper finds that gold demand,real interest rate,the quantity of money,the uncertainty of macro policy and the dollar index have different influences on gold price.Based on this,the paper explores the development of international gold market and the trend of gold price in the future,then,puts forward some policy suggestions,such as adjusting gold reserve timely according to the trend of market price,implementing active gold management and further opening gold market.

关 键 词：黄金供需 黄金市场 黄金价格 

分 类 号：F293[经济管理—国民经济]