结直肠癌发病风险预测模型的建立及应用  

Development of Nomogram for Predicting ColorectalCancer and Its Nursing Value

作　　者：刘宇英[1] 李艳红 严岳 赵安世 罗琳娜 伍民庆 谢传波 LIUI Yu-ying;LI Yan-hong;YAN Yue;ZHAO An-shi;LUO Lin-na;WU Min-qing;XIE Chuan-bo(Dept.of Cancer Prevention,State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China,Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine,Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center,Guangzhou 510060,China;Dept.of Medical Oncology,State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China,Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine,Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center,Guangzhou 510060,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学肿瘤防治中心,华南肿瘤学国家重点实验室肿瘤医学协同创新中心防癌体检健康管理中心,广东广州510060 [2]中山大学肿瘤防治中心,华南肿瘤学国家重点实验室肿瘤医学协同创新中心肿瘤内科,广东广州510060

出　　处：《护理学报》2020年第16期65-69,共5页Journal of Nursing（China）

摘　　要：目的利用结直肠癌常见危险因素建立结直肠癌发病预测列线图用于结直肠癌高危人群筛查。方法本研究的数据来源于美国前列腺、肺、结直肠及卵巢癌筛查数据库,该研究的基线问卷系统搜集了社会人口学特征及结直肠癌家族史、息肉史等信息。利用单因素和多因素COX回归模型筛选结直肠癌的高危因素,采用R软件包建立结直肠癌预测列线图,并对其预测效果进行评价。结果年龄、性别、吸烟、结直肠癌家族史、阿司匹林使用、规律结直肠检查、是否患糖尿病等为结直肠癌的独立危险因素,这些变量建立的预测列线图预测结直肠癌发病风险时的c-index为0.626。结论本研究通过简单易获取的变量建立了结直肠癌预测列线图,该模型可协助筛选结直肠癌高风险人群。Objective To establish a nomogram for predicting colorectal cancer by using readily available variables.Methods We used univariate and mutivariate Cox proportion regression models to examine the associations between sociodemographic and clinical variables and risk of colorectal cancer.Then we established the nomogram for predicting colorectal cancer using the variables we selected.Results Age,sex,smoking,family colorectal cancer history,aspirin use,regular colorectal cancer screening,and diabetes were independent risk factors for colorectal cancer.We used these factors to establish a nomogram and it achieved high agreement between observed and predicted colorectal cancers(c-index=0.626).Conclusion The established nomogram for predicting colorectal cancer using readily available factors might be useful for screening high risk colorectal cancer patients.

关 键 词：结直肠癌 预测列线图 预检分诊 

分 类 号：R473.6[医药卫生—护理学]