大黄鱼收购价格指数波动分析与预测  

Analysis and forecast of purchasing price index fluctuation of large yellow croaker

作　　者：杨卫[1] 王春苗 YANG Wei;WANG Chun-miao(College of Economics and Management,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China)

机构地区：[1]上海海洋大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2020年第3期99-108,共10页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：现代农业产业技术体系专项资金(项目编号:CARS-49-G29)资助。

摘　　要：水产品收购价格指数的变动分析和准确预测对养殖户的养殖活动以及渔业部门的产业结构调整具有重要的指导意义。本文以2016年1月-2019年5月大黄鱼的月度价格指数为研究对象,运用X12季节调整法对大黄鱼月度价格指数数据进行分解,并用H-P滤波法将其趋势循环序列进一步分解为周期成分和趋势成分,以季节调整后的价格指数拟合ARIMA模型,模型拟合效果和精确度均良好,对2019年6月-9月的大黄鱼月度价格指数进行预测。预测结果表明,100-200g与350-400g大黄鱼价格指数将会有所下降,原因分别在于养殖缩减导致的鱼苗采购量降低和养殖户避免滞销损失而进行的销售活动。200-300g及450-500g的大黄鱼价格指数则会有所上升,原因分别是,养殖户为维持存鱼量减少销售量以及季节性、节假日效应所带来的需求增加。为维持水产品价格稳定提出制定配套补贴政策、完善水产品市场监测机制及提高水产养殖技术创新能力等建议。The analysis on fluctuation and accurate prediction of the purchasing price index of aquatic products have important guiding significance to the breeding activities of farmers and the management of fishery department. This paper takes monthly price index of large yellow croakers from January 2016 to May 2019 as the research object. The X12 seasonal adjustment method is used to decompose the monthly price index data of large yellow croaker. The trend and cycle sequences of monthly price index are decomposed furtherly through H-P filter. ARIMA model, which fitting the seasonally adjusted price index well, is used to do short-term prediction. The prediction results show that the price indexes of 100-200 g and 350-400 g large yellow croakers will decline, which is respectively caused by purchase quantity of fish fry due to the reduction of breeding an d the sales of farmers who avoid the loss of income. The price indexes of 200-300 g and 450-500 g large yellow croakers will increase, which is due to the increase of demand brought by the seasonal and holiday effects and the decrease of sales volume for the purpose of maintaining fish stocks. In order to maintain the price stability of aquatic products, some suggestions are put forward, such as formulating supporting subsidy policies, perfecting the market monitoring mechanism of aquatic products and improving the innovation ability of aquaculture technology.

关 键 词：水产品价格 价格指数 预测 市场建议 

分 类 号：F426.407[经济管理—产业经济]