“一带一路”倡议下中俄货物贸易互补性变化研究  

Research on the Complementary Changes of China-Russian Trade in Goods Before and After the“The Belt and Road”Initiative

作　　者：陈烨丹 刘毅 CHEN Ye-dan;LIU Yi(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi’an 710127,China;School of Economics,Xi’an University of Finance and Economics,Xi’an 710100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127 [2]西安财经大学经济学院,陕西西安710100

出　　处：《西安财经大学学报》2020年第5期82-90,共9页Journal of Xi’an University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部研究基地重大研究项目“丝绸之路经济带贸易合作研究”(15JJD790025)。

摘　　要：文章运用1994—2018年的数据,采用贸易互补性指数测度发现,中俄货物贸易由“一带一路”倡议前的波动性强、高风险且相对较弱的互补性特征转变为稳定性强、低风险、高互补性的特征,由以食品等初级产品贸易的高互补性为主转变为以制成品及资源类产品贸易的高互补性为主。中俄货物贸易具有高互补性特征,且互补贸易中几乎100%是产业间互补,产业内互补缺乏;产业间互补日益由以资本和技术密集型产品为主,向以资源密集型产品为主转变;中国比较优势从1994年以食品等初级产品为主逐渐向以服装、机械和运输设备等劳动密集型和资本与技术密集型产品贸易为主,进一步向以电机、电气、核反应堆等资本与技术密集型产品为主转变,俄罗斯比较优势则从1994年主要以钢铁、肥料等为主,向以矿物燃料等资源密集型产品为主转变。中国相关政府部门应通过完善协调机制、提升合作层次,发挥比较优势、优化贸易结构,积极扩大对俄投资、保障能源进口等一系列政策举措,促进中俄货物贸易持续、稳健、高质量发展。According to the data of 25 years from 1994 to 2018,the measure of trade complementarity index shows that the characteristics of strong volatility,high risk and relatively weak complementarity before the“The Belt and Road”initiative have been changed to the characteristics of strong stability,low risk and high complementarity.Furthermore,it shows the trade from the high complementarity of trade in primary products such as food before the initiative to the high complementarity of trade in manufactured products and resource products after the initiative.Using the trade competitive advantage index to measure the complementary attributes of all trade commodities in 96 chapters of the five categories between China and Russia in the same period,it found that China-Russian trade in goods is highly complementary,and almost 100%of the complementary trade is inter-industry complementarity,lacking in industry complementarity.The inter-industry complementarity has increasingly shifted from capital and technology-intensive products before the“initiative”to resource-intensive products after the“initiative”.China’s comparative advantage has gradually shifted from food and other primary products in 1994 to trade in labor-intensive and capital and technology-intensive products such as clothing,machinery and transportation equipment before and after the initiative,and to capital and technology-intensive products such as motor,electrical and nuclear reactors since the initiative,while Russia’s comparative advantage has shifted from steel and fertilizer in 1994 to resource-intensive products such as fossil fuels since the initiative.In the future,China’s relevant government departments should promote a sustained,stable and high-quality development of China-Russian trade in goods by improving coordination mechanisms,enhancing cooperation levels,giving play to comparative advantages,optimizing trade structures,and actively expanding investment in Russia and ensuring energy imports.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 中俄货物贸易 贸易互补性指数 贸易竞争优势指数 

分 类 号：F752.751.2[经济管理—国际贸易]