增加值贸易与国际经济周期联动:理论模拟与经验检验  

Value-added Trade and International Business Cycle Synchronization:Theoretical Simulation and Empirical Testing

作　　者：邵宇佳 刘文革[1] Shao Yujia;Liu Wenge

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学世界经济系,沈阳110136 [2]北京大学经济学院

出　　处：《世界经济》2020年第8期100-122,共23页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金重大专项(18VSJ024)的资助。

摘　　要：本文结合生产异质性理论在国际经济周期模型框架下构建了一个三国动态理论模型并对理论模拟结果进行经验检验。理论模拟结果表明,无论是否存在传统意义上的贸易,增加值贸易始终可以传导经济周期,且随着双边贸易成本下降,两国经济周期联动性也会显著增强。经验研究结果表明,无论是否对增加值贸易采取滞后1期处理,或采用何种标准化处理,或引入何种固定效应,回归结果均显示增加值贸易对国际经济周期联动性具有显著正向影响,传统意义上的贸易对经济周期联动性的作用并不稳健。这为一国重塑价值链或贸易格局以应对贸易保护主义乃至经济脱钩提供了政策参考。This paper constructs a three-country dynamic theoretical model within the framework of the International Real Business Cycle(IRBC)model and the production heterogeneity E-K model;it then empirically tests the theoretical results of the simulation.The theoretical simulation results show that,regardless of the existence of traditional trade,value-added trade can still convey the economic cycles of the two countries and produce linkages between them,and as the bilateral trade costs decrease,the linkages between the economic cycles of the two countries also improve significantly through the increase in bilateral value-added trade.Empirical results indicate that regardless of whether it is the linkage between the added value of two industries or the linkage between the total output of industries as an explanatory variable,whether value-added trade is lagging for one period,what standardization treatment is adopted,or what kind of fixed effects are introduced,the regression results show that value-added trade has a significant positive effect on the linkages of the international economic cycle.In the traditional sense,the effect of trade on the linkages of the economic cycle does not pass the robustness tests,which is exactly consistent with the theoretical results of the simulation.These findings provide reference to the policies to be followed by a country in reshaping its value chain or trade pattern in order to address trade protectionism and even economic decoupling.

关 键 词：增加值贸易 国际经济周期联动 三国模型 动态模拟 

分 类 号：F14[经济管理—世界经济] F41