基于动态客流预测的车站智能应急指挥平台研究  

Research on Intelligent Emergency Command Platform at Stations Based on Dynamic Passenger Flow Prediction

作　　者：张秋亮 杨栋 戴建强 ZHANG Qiuliang;YANG Dong;DAI Jianqiang(Computing Technology Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences Corporation Limited,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司电子计算技术研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国铁路》2020年第8期64-69,共6页China Railway

基　　金：中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司科技研究开发计划项目(2018YJ102)。

摘　　要：在分析候车旅客人数和进站旅客人数的基础上,提出车站动态客流预测模型,并对进站人数预测函数进行验证,平均误差为6.2%。根据车站应急指挥需求,设计车站应急指挥模板,阐述应急预案配置、应急预案启动、应急事件处置、应急处置汇总模块;在此基础上,设计基于动态客流预测的应急指挥流程。构建基于动态客流预测的车站智能应急指挥平台,详细阐述应急资源管理、应急预案管理、应急指挥管理、预案预警管理4个方面,平台具有信息共享、业务流程再造、智能化、规范化的特点。A model of dynamic passenger flow prediction at stations was established on the basis of analyzing the number of waiting passengers and inbound passengers,and the prediction function of inbound passengers was verified,with an average error of 6.2%.According to the requirements for station emergency command,the template for emergency command at stations was designed,and the modules of emergency plan configuration and launching,emergency response and emergency response summarizing were elaborated;on this basis,the emergency command process based on dynamic passenger flow prediction was designed.The intelligent emergency command platform at stations based on dynamic passenger flow prediction was established,covering 4 specific aspects,i.e.management of emergency resources,management of emergency plan,management of emergency command and management of early warning,and featuring information sharing,business process reengineering,intelligence and standardization.

关 键 词：客运站 应急指挥 智能化 客流预测 应急资源 应急预案 

分 类 号：U293.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] U298.2[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]